Why did Brent crash 4 bucks in seconds? Looks like it was a Bloomberg mistranslation of a report in Persian suggesting that Tehran was prepared to relax its hard line position. Should get priced out soon. From a London-based analyst/trader who wishes to remain anonymous. https://t.co/ipUvADbtdf

No. He isn’t. He’s pushing down Brent. Even if he signs something, it won’t last. Western imperialism is far from broken yet. They have to actually capitulate. That is some ways down the line after the publics turn on them and put an end to these wars. Everyone has to go through a lot of pain first before they are forced to give up.

I am coming around to the view that there is at least a 10-15 dollars of 'Houthi risk premium' in Brent, perhaps even 20. Let's say 15. If 80 is the baseline without any war risk premium, then the present level of 105 = 80 + 15 + 10. If GS is right about 85, then 105 = 85 + 10 + 10. This means the equilibrium price under a temp deal scenario is 95. Add a little residual Iran risk premium of, say, 5 bucks, we are left with 100 as the correct price to close our short position.

Hours to go before Brent reopens. Iranian media diplomacy roundup: “Araqchi: Consultations with mediators on the two-day plan are ongoing and are on track to be implemented, but we have not yet reached a definitive conclusion. Egyptian Foreign Minister: We have increased contacts with Tehran, Washington and Riyadh to prevent escalating tensions. Al Arabiya: Signs of an agreement between Iran and the US are on the horizon. Reuters: Iranian negotiators are holding talks with mediators in Doha for the third consecutive day.” https://t.co/7xHc602oXt

The main problem of this trade is that it can be difficult to detect a deal in advance. But soon as it obtains Brent will crash. There may be as much as 40 dollars of war risk premium. If you’re levered 5X, you could lose 90 percent of the committed capital in a second. https://t.co/M25sPphGFc