$MOS.... +3.2% post-earnings. yesterday Rev -10%, Op Loss, Net Inc Loss Looks bad cosmetically, but the thing is they are sold out, with Countries (China) coming in strong on demand happy to take in more inventory. This is on account of the sulfur requirement to make Potash. Sulfer pricing is still of, fairly significant. Recall, the relationship between Sulfer and NatGas is very direct, so it's a secondary impact of the situation in SOH. Also, $MOS does have a sulfur-advantaged contract (I think this is just from the Gulf Coast refiners, but not 100% sure). ALSO RECALL that you have significant refining in Belarus (Which they keep calling Bela-Russia on the call, since the two are linked). AND ALSO, this is what feeds into Asia and Europe potash. For some folks who know me in IRL, I've told folks that I'm thinking some of the stats on and - quite frankly - the quality of - Food don't quite make sense for the US unless we are doing something not straightforward on food exports that aren't hitting the numbers. The news feeds - recall - largely are going to focus on grains, and to a lesser extent the other foodstuffs that trade on the CME. But I think this is the entire food complex for the US. $MOS did report that the farmer is seeing stronger pricing to help them out. The exports from Russia & Belarus are weak. This is kinda awkward, and it's a "move." I've noticed A LOT of political commentary on Ukr-Russia that doesn't acknowledge all of the impact issues to Europe related to an extended war. This food thing OFTEN goes ignored and is DEF a way that the US consumer has to absorb the conflict. Recall that this season in particular, Ukr had weak grain crops even on the reduced expectations since things broke out. No one is talking about it, but truly truly truly, there is only 2 ways that gets compensated for (Us or the LatAm). LatAm in the Spring had a bumper crop, but we didn't do quite as well to help the world out (not something we can really control). Incidentally, 2027 is a big year b/c farmers in general N & S America have been underapplying for 2 fertilizer seasons at this point. It can't go on forever in the context of both areas trying to subsidize what isn't being produced on the other 3 continents. (AUS has a different dynamic) Given what I've been seeing thus far, these hidden costs aren't going to make it to the press. Neither US party benefits from having a real discussion about it.
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