NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIAVRTVertiv Holdings, LLCBullishVertiv Holdings, LLC

1w ago on

My $VRT Q3 review is finally done. I went back through my earlier articles to see how the thesis is holding up. I go through: • How Q3 compares with the delivery targets I highlighted in July. • What the order growth and backlog tell us about 2027. • Service profitability and how customer advances help fund the expansion. • The NVIDIA opportunity and what Vertiv is paying to expand its capabilities. • Whether my EPS estimates still hold up, and what valuation a potential doubling would require. More confidence in the business after this quarter, with a few assumptions from my earlier articles that deserved another look. Link in comments. It's free.

NeutralNVDANVIDIANVIDIAAMDINTCIntelIntel

2w ago on

Taiwan's Economic Daily says $INTC, $NVDA and $AMD prepaid about $5B to lock up substrate capacity, with Intel at roughly $3B of it. That split is an industry estimate, so take it loosely. Substrates are the boards chips sit on, and they're scarce enough now that buyers pay years in advance. Unimicron just lifted 2026 capex to NT$53.7B to keep up. The Intel part surprised me most.

NVDANVIDIABearishNVIDIA

2w ago on

$NVDA has over $500B in off-balance-sheet commitments, per CNBC's read of its filings, most maturing through fiscal 2029. That means it isn't counted as debt, but they could still owe it if a customer stumbles. I doubt most people pricing it as a chip company know that.

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIAVRTVertiv Holdings, LLCBullishVertiv Holdings, LLC

4w ago on

$VRT keeps showing up in the designs for the next generation of AI infrastructure. At OCP yesterday, Nvidia highlighted Visionbay’s planned K-1 platform, combining its 800 VDC architecture with Vertiv’s power and cooling technology. K-1 is still a design announcement, with no disclosed order value. But seeing Vertiv involved at this stage adds to my conviction that the company can keep growing its role as these systems become more demanding.

NeutralNVDANVIDIANVIDIAAVGOBroadcomBroadcomBXBlackstone Inc.Blackstone Inc.ORCLOracleOracle

4w ago on

Getting clearer by the day. I wrote back in July that capital could become another bottleneck in the AI buildout. Yesterday, $AVGO CEO Hock Tan said capital will be the biggest constraint as the company works through wafer and memory shortages. That is quite a statement coming from someone whose business depends on customers funding this expansion. Broadcom’s financing platform with Apollo and Blackstone launched with an initial $35 billion transaction. Nvidia has since disclosed guarantees capped at $105 billion supporting parts of OpenAI’s Ohio project. Now there are reports of another major financing package for OpenAI involving Broadcom, alongside further chip financing discussions at Oracle. I think the important question to dive in on is: How much exposure will they accept to the same customers and the same assumptions about future compute revenue? I remain bullish on the buildout. But I’m paying much closer attention to the capital bottleneck.