Called $COPPER bullish on Mar 27, 2024: $COPPER rose 27% in 8 weeks.
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Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on NVDA by @fxevolution on X since Feb 2022: not yet scored on NVDA (as of Nov 11, 2026).
1 NVDA call on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 NVDA calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @fxevolution to submit corrections.
Called $COPPER bullish on Mar 27, 2024: $COPPER rose 27% in 8 weeks.
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$1.75 TRILLION. That's how much market value Nvidia $NVDA has lost from its peak. https://t.co/Lw2qcNUC4C
View original →NVDA/SPY Is losing what has held through every sell-off since mid 2025... Until Today! https://t.co/lmRdc9Fd4k
View original →4 Things That Caught My Attention Today... 1. The numbers coming out of SK Hynix are almost hard to believe. Revenue reportedly jumped 328% to $78.9 billion, while operating profit surged 632%. An 80% operating margin for a semiconductor manufacturer is extraordinary. What's even more interesting is that management expects memory demand to exceed supply through 2030, with long-term customers already securing much of its future production. Let's see how price ends up reacting this week! 2. Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to around 60,000 employees, while Barclays is reportedly preparing thousands of job cuts. Across technology, more companies are talking about AI when explaining changes to their workforces. Yet a survey of 9,000 executives found that 90% haven't seen meaningful productivity improvements from AI so far. That's quite a contrast. 3. Moody's says around 17% of the 607 companies it tracks are already paying part of their interest by taking on more debt. Meanwhile, a wave of private credit loans linked to AI infrastructure will need refinancing between 2027 and 2029. We've discussed CoreWeave, Oracle and the growing dependence on borrowing to fund data centres. The part I'm interested in is what happens when those financing arrangements come up for renewal. Building the infrastructure is one thing. Funding it over the next decade is another. 4. SpaceX has reportedly committed to a $40 billion arrangement to lease Nvidia's next-generation chips, with payments beginning in 2027. Forty billion dollars for computing equipment. We've now got technology companies, private credit funds, asset managers and chip manufacturers all involved in financing the AI buildout. It's time to watch CDS even more closely. Patience. React, don't predict.
View original →3 Things That Caught My Attention Today... 1. Credit default swap spreads have been widening across some of the biggest technology names, including Nvidia and Broadcom. We've spent weeks discussing CoreWeave, Oracle and the enormous amount of borrowing being used to fund AI infrastructure, but seeing credit protection become more expensive for companies with much stronger balance sheets is worth paying attention to. 2. US homebuilder confidence has fallen to 29, its lowest reading since June 2012. That's quite a number when you consider the 30-year mortgage rate is back around 7.4%. But there's more going on here than just mortgage rates. Builders are dealing with higher diesel prices, construction materials, labour costs and financing expenses, while prospective buyer traffic has fallen to levels we haven't seen in almost 14 years, excluding the pandemic. Perhaps the most interesting statistic is that 43% of builders are now cutting prices. 3. BlackRock is now looking to offer Bitcoin exposure with a degree of downside protection. Its proposed PBIT ETF would use options to participate in Bitcoin's upside, but with gains capped in exchange for some protection against losses. Think about that for a moment. Bitcoin was built around the idea of decentralisation and taking risk outside the traditional financial system, and now one of the world's largest asset managers is developing products designed to make that risk more manageable for traditional investors. Patience. React, don't predict.
View original →5 Things That Caught My Attention Today... 1. Things are getting interesting in CoreWeave's debt. The cost of insuring the company's bonds against default has reportedly reached record levels, with five-year credit default swaps trading around 1,195 basis points. Some of its bonds are now trading around 79 cents on the dollar, offering yields above 15%. Credit markets are effectively pricing in a substantial probability of default over the next five years, although that doesn't mean default is inevitable. Remember, this is one of the companies sitting right in the middle of the AI infrastructure boom, backed by Nvidia and holding enormous contracts with major technology companies. Jensen Huang says CoreWeave's financing costs are improving and Nvidia doesn't need to bail it out. It's quite a contrast to what the bond market is telling us. I've said it before, sometimes the most interesting signals aren't coming from the stock market at all. 2. Semiconductors are having a pretty rough time. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen around 12% over recent sessions, while SOXX has now recorded eight consecutive declines, its longest losing streak in roughly 11 years. Yet investors have reportedly poured billions into leveraged semiconductor ETFs during the selloff. 3. The Russell 2000 ETF has fallen more than 10% from its August high and is now trading below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Its RSI has dropped toward 28, a level we haven't seen since the sharp weakness around April 2025. We've been watching small caps struggle for weeks while the biggest technology companies kept the headline indices near their highs. Higher borrowing costs are particularly relevant here because smaller companies often have less financial flexibility than their larger counterparts. 4. September's producer inflation numbers are a pretty good example of why. US PPI jumped 1.3% in a single month, more than double expectations, taking annual producer inflation to 6.3%. Diesel prices at the producer level rose 21% in September alone. That's an enormous monthly increase. We've looked at the divergence between crude oil and refined products, the shipping problems and the impact on companies like Delta. Now we're seeing those pressures appear in the official inflation data. It doesn't mean every increase gets passed directly to consumers, but businesses are certainly dealing with a very different cost environment than they were earlier this year. 5. Anthropic's latest numbers are extraordinary, although the market reaction tells us something about expectations. According to the Financial Times, revenue reached $16.8 billion in Q3, up around 46% from the previous quarter, and the company reported another adjusted operating profit. That's impressive growth by almost any measure. But the previous quarter's growth was considerably faster, and investors are now looking at a potential November IPO with a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Patience. React, don't predict.
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