IWMRussell 2000NeutralRussell 2000

2w ago on

Well, this is getting interesting. $SMH, $IWM, mid caps and transports are all sitting around their 200-day moving averages. That's quite a few important parts of the market testing the same long-term trend indicator at once. Paul Tudor Jones once said, “My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.” I'm particularly interested in whether $IWM can reclaim its 200DMA here.

NeutralIWMRussell 2000Russell 2000WTICLWTI Crude OilWTI Crude OilCRWVCoreWeave, Inc.CoreWeave, Inc.NVDANVIDIANVIDIASOXLDirexion Daily Semiconductor BuDirexion Daily Semiconductor Bu

3w ago on

5 Things That Caught My Attention Today... 1. Things are getting interesting in CoreWeave's debt. The cost of insuring the company's bonds against default has reportedly reached record levels, with five-year credit default swaps trading around 1,195 basis points. Some of its bonds are now trading around 79 cents on the dollar, offering yields above 15%. Credit markets are effectively pricing in a substantial probability of default over the next five years, although that doesn't mean default is inevitable. Remember, this is one of the companies sitting right in the middle of the AI infrastructure boom, backed by Nvidia and holding enormous contracts with major technology companies. Jensen Huang says CoreWeave's financing costs are improving and Nvidia doesn't need to bail it out. It's quite a contrast to what the bond market is telling us. I've said it before, sometimes the most interesting signals aren't coming from the stock market at all. 2. Semiconductors are having a pretty rough time. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen around 12% over recent sessions, while SOXX has now recorded eight consecutive declines, its longest losing streak in roughly 11 years. Yet investors have reportedly poured billions into leveraged semiconductor ETFs during the selloff. 3. The Russell 2000 ETF has fallen more than 10% from its August high and is now trading below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Its RSI has dropped toward 28, a level we haven't seen since the sharp weakness around April 2025. We've been watching small caps struggle for weeks while the biggest technology companies kept the headline indices near their highs. Higher borrowing costs are particularly relevant here because smaller companies often have less financial flexibility than their larger counterparts. 4. September's producer inflation numbers are a pretty good example of why. US PPI jumped 1.3% in a single month, more than double expectations, taking annual producer inflation to 6.3%. Diesel prices at the producer level rose 21% in September alone. That's an enormous monthly increase. We've looked at the divergence between crude oil and refined products, the shipping problems and the impact on companies like Delta. Now we're seeing those pressures appear in the official inflation data. It doesn't mean every increase gets passed directly to consumers, but businesses are certainly dealing with a very different cost environment than they were earlier this year. 5. Anthropic's latest numbers are extraordinary, although the market reaction tells us something about expectations. According to the Financial Times, revenue reached $16.8 billion in Q3, up around 46% from the previous quarter, and the company reported another adjusted operating profit. That's impressive growth by almost any measure. But the previous quarter's growth was considerably faster, and investors are now looking at a potential November IPO with a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Patience. React, don't predict.

IWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000000660SK hynixNeutralSK hynixEWYiShares MSCI South Korea ETFNeutraliShares MSCI South Korea ETF

3w ago on

3 Things That Caught My Attention Today... 1. Things are getting pretty ugly in South Korea. The KOSPI has reportedly fallen more than 20% from its recent highs, with Samsung and SK Hynix coming under heavy selling pressure. Trading curbs have been triggered again as concerns around AI financing, semiconductor valuations and higher US inflation spill into Asian markets. 2. Small caps are now officially in correction territory. IWM closed at $271.37, down another 1.9%, taking its decline from the August highs to more than 10%. We've been watching this chart for weeks, particularly the weakening trend and the move below the 200-day moving average. What I find interesting is how differently smaller companies have been behaving compared with the biggest technology stocks. Higher Treasury yields and borrowing costs are clearly part of that conversation, especially for businesses that rely more heavily on floating-rate debt. As paul Tudor Jones once famously said, nothing good happens underneath the 200DMA. 3. September CPI came in at 3.7%, above expectations, with gasoline prices jumping 9.1% in a single month. We've spent months talking about diesel, oil and the cost of moving energy around the world, and now we're seeing some of those pressures appearing in the inflation data. With earnings season underway, a lot of people will be looking at big tech over the next few weeks. Patience. React, don't predict.