$VICI recently authorized up to $2 BILLION in share buybacks. REITs like VICI almost never buyback shares, so this tell you just how suppressed management believes the share price has become. Here's the math we MST understand: If we take the liberty to make a few assunptions: • 2027 AFFO/share before buybacks: $2.55 • Average repurchase price: $22.50 • Buyback spending: $2 billion • Annual funding cost: 5.5% • Full-year benefit from the repurchases At $22.50 per share, VICI could retire approximately 88.9 million shares, reducing the starting share count by about 8.1%. After accounting for $110 million in annual interest expense or income forgone, AFFO per share would rise from $2.55 to approximately $2.67. That’s roughly 4.5% accretion from the buyback alone. Higher AFFO per share could creates additional capacity for future dividend growth. BUT- That doesn't always mean repurchasing shares is the best use of that capital. Using these assumptions, buying shares at $22.50 means buying back an estimated $2.55 of annual AFFO for every share retired. That’s an implied forward AFFO yield of approximately 11.3%. That 11.3% becomes an important benchmark when evaluating acquisitions, development financing, and other investments. If VICI can deploy capital elsewhere at a higher return, after considering funding costs, risk, and future growth, that investment may create more value than repurchasing shares. The repurchase price matters substantially of course as well.. As the share price rises, the AFFO yield falls and buybacks become less attractive, all else equal. The model assumes the entire authorization is used at the start of the year, but keep in mind the authorization runs through September 2029 and does not require VICI to spend the full amount. I want management to pursue whichever opportunity creates the most long-term value per share, with buybacks competing for capital alongside every other investment.
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