NeutralMETAAAPLAppleAppleAMZNAmazonAmazonGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftNVDANVIDIANVIDIATSLATeslaTesla

3d ago on

Magnificent 7 YTD returns in 2026: 🟢 $AAPL: +25.94% 🟢 $AMZN: +12.34% 🟢 $MSFT: +9.72% 🟢 $NVDA: +0.08% 🔴 $META: -7.57% 🔴 $GOOGL: -9.02% 🔴 $TSLA: -20.35% The Magnificent 7’s average YTD price return is +1.59%.

NeutralMETAAMZNAmazonAmazonGOOGAlphabetAlphabetGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftORCLOracleOracle

5d ago on

Since 2025, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have collectively raised approximately $286 billion through bond sales: • Alphabet: $118 billion • Amazon: $113 billion • Meta: $55 billion The AI wave is being funded heavily by debt issuance. Microsoft had largely stayed out of that borrowing wave- But now even Microsoft is seeking at least $25 billion in its first U.S. investment-grade bond offering since 2017. The AI infrastructure buildout is becoming a major event for the corporate bond market, and investors are increasingly distinguishing between the companies financing it. Just look at how much five-year credit-default-swap spreads have widened, particularly for Oracle and Meta: • Microsoft: 54 basis points • Meta: 116 basis points • Oracle: 275 basis points Those figures correspond to credit-default-swap spreads of roughly 54, 116 and 275 basis points, respectively. Oracle’s protection costs approximately five times as much as Microsoft’s. A lot if this difference (in my opinion) comes down the cash flows these companies are currently producing. In their latest reported quarters, free cash flow was: • Microsoft: +$18.6 billion • Alphabet: −$9.1 billion • Oracle: −$5.0 billion • Meta: −$2.1 billion Microsoft generated $58 billion in operating cash flow, enough to cover $39.4 billion in cash capital expenditures and retain a substantial surplus. But... Alphabet, Oracle, and Meta’s negative quarterly free cash flow means their infrastructure spending exceeded the cash their operations generated during those periods. So the sustained deficits will increase reliance on external financing. If monetization doesn't meet expectations, the hyperscalers still posting positive free cash flow (basically just Microsoft at this point) will have much more flexibility to absorb the shortfall. Microsoft’s proposed deal will again offer another test of how much demand there is for this hyperscaler debt, but it's no surprise the spread won't be as high as their peers. Initial pricing discussions for its longest bond, due in 2066, indicated a spread of up to 135 basis points above comparable Treasuries. As AI spending increasingly relies on debt, the spread we see on the Bonds vs Treasuries will likely continue to expand. How long will this market be okay with negative free cash flow?

NeutralMETAAAPLAppleAppleAMZNAmazonAmazonGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftNVDANVIDIANVIDIATSLATeslaTesla

6d ago on

Capex as a share of revenue over the last four reported quarters: 📱 $META: 43.2% 💻 $MSFT: 39.2% 🔎 $GOOGL: 33.9% 📦 $AMZN: 26.9% 🚗 $TSLA: 14.8% 🖥️ $NVDA: 2.4% 🍎 $AAPL: 1.8% Meta spends 43 cents of every revenue dollar on capex. Apple spends less than 2 cents.

NeutralMETAAMDAVGOBroadcomBroadcomMUMicron TechnologyMicron TechnologyNVDANVIDIANVIDIA

1w ago on

Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022: $MU: +1,435% $STX: +1,117% $NVDA: +1,109% $AMD: +550% $AVGO: +492% $META: +421% Here are some of the other biggest winners: https://t.co/jw1kN5JUtE

NeutralMETAAAPLAppleAppleAMZNAmazonAmazonGOOGAlphabetAlphabetGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftNVDANVIDIANVIDIATSLATeslaTesla

1w ago on

Apple is dominating the MAG7 stocks this year- But it isn't due to earnings growth. Here’s how their forward P/E multiples have changed since the start of 2026: 🟢 Apple: 32.88x → 38.06x | Expanded 15.8% 🔴 Nvidia: 26.66x → 17.67x | Contracted 33.7% 🔴 Microsoft: 29.07x → 25.55x | Contracted 12.1% 🔴 Amazon: 31.01x → 25.12x | Contracted 19.0% 🔴 Meta: 22.59x → 18.96x | Contracted 16.1% 🔴 Alphabet: 29.40x → 20.19x | Contracted 31.3% 🔴 Tesla: 222.60x → 188.37x | Contracted 15.4%