SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500
4d ago on
Tough Year for Beta. 60/40 and SPY had large drawdowns along the way and only 8% YTD return. but my balanced beta has been sideways for a while (Green line.) https://t.co/zkUh45dJQi
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https://t.co/SgaSuGdrox macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on SPY by @dampedspring on X since Aug 2025: not yet scored on SPY (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (19)
Absolute view by default: Andy Constan states bull / bear plainly (80% of directional calls are outright).
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @dampedspring to submit corrections.
Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Tough Year for Beta. 60/40 and SPY had large drawdowns along the way and only 8% YTD return. but my balanced beta has been sideways for a while (Green line.) https://t.co/zkUh45dJQi
View original →This worked because of calling the bottom in bonds. Now it's working because of spy. Bonds are boring at current levels https://t.co/ySkuIL0B5c
View original →SPX is down 18bp since Fridays close and NDX is down 80bp Zzzzzz https://t.co/RbS17q3z71
View original →SPX Price change YTD as of Friday was +11.8%. What percent of the SPX 500 stocks have beaten the SPX? Not cap weighted. Pick the one you think is closest
View original →Instead of dooming how about "The Bull Case for equities for Q4" I am short equities and long bonds at the moment so I don't need to wonder about the bear case. I don't need doom porn or crash memes for black monday. I need to consider where I am wrong. I'll break it down into reasons to be bullish equities. 1. Earnings, earnings, earnings. They are accruing at the SPX level at 30% ish annualized. They will beat expectations over the next 5 weeks 2. Valuations could easily richen though are pretty rich 3. Long term interest rates could have topped 4. The Fed has things handled and won't be forced to tighten 5. after a) the election the president will end the war and bring oil prices down b) The Congress is and will be in gridlock which will keep fiscal humming but not overheat c) election uncertainty will dissipate 6. when equities are high going into year end. Winners are chased by those underperforming at the same time as those who are outperforming refuse to sell winners due to capital gains tax realization (Broadly defined causal Santa Claus rally) 7. Bessent could reduce duration issuance and support assets 8. Circular financing by all (NVDA in particular) will offset any supply or issuance that has been a headwind to compute investment 9. Reflexive consumption/dissaving due to asset price increases could drive above trend real growth and support stocks over bonds 10. It's possible that Hedge funds will/have been flushed out of positions and positioning is too bearish I'm sure there are more bullish cases but these are some of mine. I am not bullish as I don't think the above is a good case but it exists for sure
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