https://t.co/SgaSuGdrox macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
—Not ranked on NVDA yet: fewer than 10 calls on it, too little data or no scored pool · 432 calls · MethodologyNot scored on NVDA yet
Top 10%Top 10% of analysts worldwide by press citations · 1 articles · 1 outlets · last 12 monthsCitations · 1 articles · 1 outlets
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 NVDA calls or days on record.
Current BiasBear29% Bullish
Accurate InNot scored on NVDAAccuracy is scored per asset, among the analysts who hold enough calls on it. NVDA has no scored record for this analyst yet.
Total Calls432Calls by sourceX432Seeking Alpha0Damped Spring Advisors0CryptoQuant0Other0A call is a post, idea, article or rating labelled bullish, bearish or neutral on a tracked asset.
Cited
Total Bull/Bear86346
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @dampedspring to submit corrections.
Recent Thesis
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Recent Calls
Showing 4 of 84 of 8
NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIA
5d ago on
$NVDA has a $235BN authorized buyback program and IS buying back stock and "reloading". Why would they "support" the stock when they are a buyer instead of buying cheaper. Isn't screwing the sellers GOOD for the shareholders vs rewarding the sellers with an elevated price. https://t.co/zFuYWoi3GM
Instead of dooming how about "The Bull Case for equities for Q4"
I am short equities and long bonds at the moment so I don't need to wonder about the bear case. I don't need doom porn or crash memes for black monday. I need to consider where I am wrong.
I'll break it down into reasons to be bullish equities.
1. Earnings, earnings, earnings. They are accruing at the SPX level at 30% ish annualized. They will beat expectations over the next 5 weeks
2. Valuations could easily richen though are pretty rich
3. Long term interest rates could have topped
4. The Fed has things handled and won't be forced to tighten
5. after
a) the election the president will end the war and bring oil prices down
b) The Congress is and will be in gridlock which will keep fiscal humming but not overheat
c) election uncertainty will dissipate
6. when equities are high going into year end. Winners are chased by those underperforming at the same time as those who are outperforming refuse to sell winners due to capital gains tax realization (Broadly defined causal Santa Claus rally)
7. Bessent could reduce duration issuance and support assets
8. Circular financing by all (NVDA in particular) will offset any supply or issuance that has been a headwind to compute investment
9. Reflexive consumption/dissaving due to asset price increases could drive above trend real growth and support stocks over bonds
10. It's possible that Hedge funds will/have been flushed out of positions and positioning is too bearish
I'm sure there are more bullish cases but these are some of mine. I am not bullish as I don't think the above is a good case but it exists for sure
Thought I'd check in on the newly listed single name equity futures markets. Each standard contract is 100 shares. Of the 55 companies listed NVDA is by far the most active. Open interest is 11,000 shares equivalent and volume is around 40,000 shares. All the rest are 1/3 the volume.
Success? What a joke. The second number in the right hand chart are today's volumes