NeutralNVDANVIDIANVIDIACRWVCoreWeave, Inc.CoreWeave, Inc.

Yesterday on

Headline inflation above 4% closes the door on "one-and-done," but the AI trade is bouncing anyway. TL;DR 1/ Tuesday's CPI print above 4% year-over-year has killed the "one-and-done" narrative and forced the market to price a genuine hiking cycle, with the 10-year set to breach 5% cleanly on reopening. 2/ The AI trade is bouncing on hard demand evidence (CoreWeave beat, OpenAI's first $10B revenue quarter, Anthropic IPO momentum), but this is a vol-structure-driven relief rally in a negative gamma regime, not a durable re-rating. 3/ NVDA is cheap on every metric but functions as a value trap until the board resolves the Jensen Huang situation ahead of November 17th earnings. 4/ Hormuz throughput at 30% of pre-war levels, Iran hardening on nuclear talks, and an overnight Ukraine strike on Russian export infrastructure at Ust-Luga mean commodity tail risk is not priced out. Regime: Fragile. Use the buyback re-entry window to selectively add AI infrastructure exposure, but keep sizing disciplined given short gamma and unresolved rates repricing.

NVDANVIDIABearishNVIDIA

2d ago on

CPI at 0.3% or above reopens the 50bp debate and unwinds the only real support holding equity multiples together. TL;DR 1/ Monday's 2.35% crash-up was a mechanical convulsion driven by negative gamma and leveraged fund dynamics, not a recovery signal. 2/ Today's CPI is the session's binary: a hot print validates Waller's 50bp threat and unwinds the post-midterm Treasury rally that's been holding up equity multiples. 3/ The NFIB's four-year-high price-raising intentions make Waller's hawkish optionality credible and argue against fading the repricing on top-down disinflation alone. 4/ The AI complex is priced for perfection while the Anthropic IPO, NVDA overhang, and post-midterm regulatory headwinds actively dispute that outcome. 5/ Systematic sellers are nearly exhausted and the buyback window is reopening, but neither resolves the underlying gamma fragility or widening credit spreads. Regime: Fragile. Fade any hot-print rally attempt and treat a soft-print relief move as tactical, not a regime change.

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIA

2d ago on

Dont forget that "The Sunday Open" on @NTLiveMedia is a great way to get setup for the week ahead, giving you all the key index levels necessary to trade these more volatile markets. Watch the replay from last night where @TradeSniperSara @paxtrader777 @PharmD_KS and I broke down the election results, Jensen Huang's issues and what that means for index rotations, and how the CPI can move the tape this week. https://t.co/6wPJtsTBwE

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIAQQQNasdaqBearishNasdaqSPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500

3d ago on

SPX opens negative gamma, hedges are intact, and Tuesday's CPI lands with December hike odds at 80%. TL;DR 1/ SPX opens in negative gamma, so dealer hedging will mechanically amplify moves in both directions regardless of direction; treat sharp intraday swings as noise until positioning shifts. 2/ Tuesday's CPI is the week's fulcrum: with December hike odds near 80% and the Nasdaq 100 still deep below its 200-DMA, an upside surprise could destabilize the nascent bounce. 3/ The Jensen Huang affair is a material key-man risk event for Nvidia, but the more important structural story this week is vol mechanics and CPI, not the idiosyncratic headline. 4/ Iran risk has repriced on Trump's conciliatory weekend commentary, but Qeshm Island strikes continued overnight and the diplomatic path is binary; don't treat the energy bid as durable. 5/ A convex squeeze higher is a live risk as CTAs and leveraged ETFs would be forced buyers into any rally, but put/call skew across tenors signals existing hedges are firmly in place. Regime: Fragile. Lean cautiously defensive into Tuesday's CPI.

NeutralNVDANVIDIANVIDIASPYS&P 500S&P 500

3d ago on

CPI week, a December hike back in play, and now Nvidia's board is opening an investigation into Jensen Huang amid reports of a China spy probe and congressional scrutiny. The AI supply chain was already cracking and now this? Breaking it all down on the Sunday Open, 6pm ET on @NTLiveMedia with @PharmD_KS @paxtrader777 and @TradeSniperSara