What to watch today •AI-capex follow-through: Nasdaq-100 futures -2.3% after Amazon/Alphabet/Intel; watch for broader tech de-risking into month-end. •Oil headline risk: Hormuz tanker mining plus Houthi-Saudi missile exchange keeping Brent near six-month highs; any confirmed US/Israeli strike on Iran would be a fresh catalyst. •December Fed repricing: markets now favor a hike, not a cut, at the December 9 meeting; watch for post-blackout Fed commentary pushing back or confirming. •Energy earnings: Exxon, Chevron, BP reporting premarket into a spiking crude tape. •Month-end flows: steepest monthly Kospi and China declines in years likely to drive rebalancing into the close. •Midterms on Tuesday (Nov 3): next major catalyst, with Iran-strike timing and Fed-independence rhetoric both tied to the outcome.
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