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Gold miners just hit their highest level against gold since 2013. Third time at this ceiling. 2016. 2020. Now. Here's why it could break this time. An ounce of gold sells for about $4,100. It costs a typical major roughly $1,600 to dig it out, all-in. The miner keeps $2,500. Now gold rises 22% to $5,000. Costs stay at $1,600. The miner keeps $3,400. Gold up 22%. Profit per ounce up 36%. That's operating leverage. And many analysts still model gold around $4,000 flat. Every dollar above that is profit nobody has in their spreadsheet yet. The honest part: leverage works both ways. Gold at $3,500 cuts that same margin by 24%. And costs are rising. Newmont expects unit costs to climb again in 2027. Gold owners own the ounce. Miner owners own the margin.

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4d ago on

Gold moves in 7-to-8 year cycles. The pattern has held for 50+ years. 1974 → 1980: 7 years 1980 → 1987: 8 years 1987 → 1994: 8 years 1994 → 2003: 8 years 2003 → 2008: 7 years 2008 → 12/2015: 8 years 12/2015 → August 2020: Early cycle bottom October 2022 marked another early 8-year cycle bottom. A break of the 2020 all-time high would be STRATEGICALLY OUTRIGHT BULLISH. THE BIBLICAL ORIGIN The cycle comes from the Bible story (Genesis 41). Pharaoh's dream: Seven fat cows and seven lean cows. Interpretation: Seven years of high yields followed by seven years of famine. The Egyptians didn't just build pyramids. They predicted financial markets 3,500 years into the future. WHEN GOLD OUTPERFORMS Gold works well in times of unrest. 1976-1980 (hyperinflation): S&P 500: 10.8% p.a. Gold: 56.3% p.a. 2001-2011 (tech bubble + financial crisis): S&P 500: 2.4% p.a. Gold: 20.6% p.a. After a prolonged sideways movement, gold has now reached a new high. This is OUTRIGHT BULLISH. THE SETUP FOR 2026 If we're entering a new cycle, the target by 2028: $15T market cap. That's a massive leg up from current levels. THE CASE FOR GOLD MINERS Most gold companies have restructured. – Balance sheets cleaned up – Cost structures streamlined – Solid free cash flow – Shareholder-friendly dividends The scenario that benefits them most? US recession + Fed cuts rates + gold rallies + fuel prices ease. Double boost to profits: 1. Rising gold price 2. Falling input costs (fuel) But as always: Gold mines are a thing of their own. You either believe in the ancient metal or you don't. There is nothing in between. PS: I'm a gold bug.

We are closing in on very solid, high volume Weekly Candles. Lows in gold and gold miners are in, imho. https://t.co/HqGE0VGenD

We are closing in on very solid, high volume Weekly Candles. Lows in gold and gold miners are in, imho. https://t.co/OLgeaolapJ

We are now in the midst of great opportunities. Volatility is finally rising, tech stocks are being sold off, deleveraging is taking place, and gold needs to be sold due to liquidity concerns and the midterms are done. RE-BREAK just happened! We are outlining our U.S. equity roadmap in arvy Macro Cycles, highlighting key levels to watch, and we’ll focus on the most important sector: semiconductors (this Sunday big paper incoming). Is this the end of the AI bubble, or just a healthy pause before the final leg toward the 2028s? In “Thierry from arvy,” we cover the 5 gold miners to own ahead of the typical shakeout we see in gold before a significant rally this Sunday. On top of that, we’re looking for semiconductors to hold, focusing on the best fundamentals and RELATIVE STRENGTH. Stay tuned! Now it’s time to roll up your sleeves, do the work, and think about portfolio construction. Defensive stocks significantly outperformed, as suggested by Michael Riesner, while high-beta stocks took a beating. Let’s dig in—step by step! All to be found here: Macro Cycles (Big Picture): https://t.co/EcfYngsXiH Stocks, Sectors & ETFs: https://t.co/KBLuehIh6H