SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

Yesterday on

Yeah, it's funny. Maybe even true. But this is something you only say during a 17-year bull market driven by QE-infinity. As Morgan himself said, we shape our ideas and our relationship to investing according to the era we live in. If you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold. If you were born in 1950, the market went nowhere People born in the 1970s love stocks and believe that they can only go up. People born in the 1950s hate stocks and consider them gambling and risky. Everyone forms their own beliefs about money based on their own life experiences, not on objective truths. Do not forget this.

SPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500

3d ago on

110 years, two lines, one pattern almost nobody trades on. The S&P 500 and commodities take turns. When one is in a bull market, the other stagnates. Look at the alternation: – 1929-1949: stocks dead. Commodities bull. – 1949-1966: stocks bull. Commodities asleep. – 1966-1982: stocks go nowhere. Commodities triple. – 1982-2000: the great equity bull. Commodities in a 20-year bear. – 2000-2008: stocks flat. Commodities double. – 2009-today: the everything equity rally. Commodities in a bear until 2020. There is always a bull market: either for the commodity consumer or the commodity producer. Never both at once. The logic is simple. Cheap raw materials are a subsidy for corporate margins; expensive ones are a tax. Twenty years of underinvestment in supply builds the next commodity bull, and the equity boom itself creates the demand that ignites it. Commodities bottomed in 2020 and the trend is pointing up. Equities are in year 17 of their run, at record valuations. If a century of taking turns still holds, you know whose turn is next. The last three times this handoff happened, the index went sideways for a decade while the "boring" producers tripled. Almost nobody positioned for it, because the previous regime had lasted long enough to feel permanent. It always does.

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

4d ago on

The Oldest Chart in the Room Once a quarter, I force myself to spend ten minutes with a chart that is older than every institution I trust. Older than the Federal Reserve. Older than the S&P 500 itself. Older, in its opening decades, than photography, the telegraph, and the germ theory of disease. It is the US stock market since 1800, adjusted for inflation. On its left edge, Napoleon is marching on Moscow. The S&P 500 (1800–2025), yearly, inflation-adjusted. Two centuries of secular bulls and bears — every major bear driven by inflation.

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500AuXAUGoldBullishGold

4d ago on

Gold moves in 7-to-8 year cycles. The pattern has held for 50+ years. 1974 → 1980: 7 years 1980 → 1987: 8 years 1987 → 1994: 8 years 1994 → 2003: 8 years 2003 → 2008: 7 years 2008 → 12/2015: 8 years 12/2015 → August 2020: Early cycle bottom October 2022 marked another early 8-year cycle bottom. A break of the 2020 all-time high would be STRATEGICALLY OUTRIGHT BULLISH. THE BIBLICAL ORIGIN The cycle comes from the Bible story (Genesis 41). Pharaoh's dream: Seven fat cows and seven lean cows. Interpretation: Seven years of high yields followed by seven years of famine. The Egyptians didn't just build pyramids. They predicted financial markets 3,500 years into the future. WHEN GOLD OUTPERFORMS Gold works well in times of unrest. 1976-1980 (hyperinflation): S&P 500: 10.8% p.a. Gold: 56.3% p.a. 2001-2011 (tech bubble + financial crisis): S&P 500: 2.4% p.a. Gold: 20.6% p.a. After a prolonged sideways movement, gold has now reached a new high. This is OUTRIGHT BULLISH. THE SETUP FOR 2026 If we're entering a new cycle, the target by 2028: $15T market cap. That's a massive leg up from current levels. THE CASE FOR GOLD MINERS Most gold companies have restructured. – Balance sheets cleaned up – Cost structures streamlined – Solid free cash flow – Shareholder-friendly dividends The scenario that benefits them most? US recession + Fed cuts rates + gold rallies + fuel prices ease. Double boost to profits: 1. Rising gold price 2. Falling input costs (fuel) But as always: Gold mines are a thing of their own. You either believe in the ancient metal or you don't. There is nothing in between. PS: I'm a gold bug.

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500SOXLDirexion Daily Semiconductor BuBullishDirexion Daily Semiconductor BuAuXAUGoldBullishGoldQQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaq

1w ago on

Fortune favors the prepared mind. 1) US equity roadmap $NDX $SPX, given for free 2) Gold cycle bottom and 5 gold miners to own $GLD 3) AI stocks plummeting, attractive risk/reward $SOXX https://t.co/94qzyZhGvM https://t.co/VaXSsoKw2C