NeutralMETAAPPAppLovinAppLovinDRAMRoundhill Memory ETFRoundhill Memory ETFHIMSHims & Hers Health, Inc.Hims & Hers Health, Inc.MSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftMUMicron TechnologyMicron Technology

Today on

There is a lot of disconnect from time to time between fundamentals and stock price. Usually, Mr. Market is efficient, but occasionally there are mistakes, for example, $APP, $MSFT, or $META recently. Disconnects happen more often in small-caps, micro-caps, and nano-caps. In mid/larger caps ($2–3B and above), they are very rare and often short in duration. If the market isn't giving any premium or growth to $HIMS or similar names, it's because they don't deserve it today. You can argue about asymmetrical opportunity all you wish, but what counts is what the market believes. The market is selling it because smarter people than I think it's not worth it. I'm also a memory bull; I find $SKHY and $MU to be excellent companies. DRAM and NAND will be in demand for years, but please stop talking about a 3 P/E like we're the only people seeing it, as if the entire buy side and sell side are stupid and the market is completely wrong on the hottest stocks out there. The market doesn't believe that LTAs change anything about memory cyclicality. What I think is irrelevant. Me disagreeing will not add a premium to it. I'm not saying you shouldn't invest in this-I've learned not to advise anyone. But I can't listen to these stories about how "no one has figured this out" except for some guy on FinX, implying the whole industry is wrong. If $MU was a $50M micro-cap, I'd trust you, but since it's the backbone of the AI buildout, I'm sure people check its valuation daily. This does not mean you should always agree with the market. Good opportunities can be found, but it's not as easy as people put it out. Usually, companies trade around the levels where they should in a given moment, based on the future expectations known at that moment.

NeutralMETAGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftNBISNebius Group N.V.Nebius Group N.V.

Yesterday on

Morgan Stanley still expects hyperscaler capex to remain unchanged at $1.6T/$1.8T in '27/'28... with potential downward bias in '28 if builds are delayed. $META $MSFT $GOOGL $NBIS https://t.co/2iLF5Yw58M

METANeutralNVDANVIDIABullishNVIDIAGOOGLAlphabetNeutralAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftNeutralMicrosoft

Yesterday on

Not a fan of buying extremely hot stocks like $NVDA, but at this level seems like a no-brainer. Each 6-9 months, Mr. Market offers us a hyperscaler/mega cap at a discount. We've seen it with $MSFT $META $GOOGL. What do you think? Bottom in for $NVDA?

METABullishAAPLAppleBullishAppleAMZNAmazonBullishAmazonGOOGLAlphabetBullishAlphabetMSFTMicrosoftBullishMicrosoftSPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

Yesterday on

So much about bubble. From Citadel "Corporate earnings have continued to exceed expectations despite entering Q3 reporting season against one of the highest bars in more than a decade. Consensus expectations called for 27% YoY S&P 500 EPS growth, with estimates having been revised higher heading into earnings. Through the first 304 reporters, representing 65% of index weight, 83% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, compared with a historical average of ~75%. This ranks among the ten strongest reporting seasons at a comparable stage since 2005." Still, the fear is notable and despite strong earnings, investors not been willing to reward companies for the results. "The index-weighted average earnings-day move has been −1.2%, the 2nd worst in 87 reporting seasons since 2005." The last part is the most unusual one: "Since June 30, forward EPS estimates have risen 32% for Memory, 31% for AI Infrastructure, and 30% for Semiconductors. Over the same period, forward valuation multiples have contracted 50%, 36% and 35%, respectively. Nearly every company in these groups has seen earnings expectations improve, yet all 20 S&P 500 semiconductor constituents have experienced multiple compression." This selling has been overdone, really, really overdone. Despite all the macro (oil, bonds, wars) nothing changed in the AI infrastructure. If anything it became stronger. This does not mean "buy every dip". We have to be a lot more selective. Way more. I believe hyperscalers will be a no brainer investment for the next 3-5 years. $GOOGL $AAPL $META $AMZN $MSFT After hyperscalers we will see improved strength in software and other industries which will rely on AI, or which had the best AI adoption.

METABullish

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I think $META will be one of the biggest winners in 2027. - Muse - FCF - Zuck - CEO faithful https://t.co/Oi0ndm880x