Called $SNDK bullish on Feb 5, 2026: $SNDK rose 232% in 5 months.
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PM | Independent research across industries (AI infra, semis, memory + microcaps) | Background in IT, economics, product
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on AAOI by @TheBigBerbowski on X since Jul 2025: not yet scored on AAOI (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (33)
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 AAOI calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @TheBigBerbowski to submit corrections.
Called $SNDK bullish on Feb 5, 2026: $SNDK rose 232% in 5 months.
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Nice day, today. $NBIS $156 $AAOI $55 $META $636 https://t.co/mZH3dWkKK9
View original →$AAOI Q3 earnings. A closer look at the numbers and management commentary. • Revenue $269.9M (+127% YoY, +41% QoQ) • Data center revenue $155.6M (+254% YoY) • CATV revenue $110.9M (+57% YoY) • 800G revenue $47.5M, nearly 4x QoQ • Adjusted EPS $0.17 vs. $0.14 expected • Adjusted gross margin 28.7%, below the 29–30.5% guidance • Q4 revenue guidance $385–420M vs. ~$427M expected The Q3 numbers themselves weren't particularly bad. The bigger disappointment is Q4 guidance and the manufacturing timeline. Management says demand remains exceptionally strong. A major hyperscaler is shifting from 800G to 1.6T faster than anticipated, and AAOI doesn't have sufficient components to satisfy that demand in Q4. That has several implications. The new three-year 1.6T agreement with an existing Tier 1 hyperscaler is expected to generate $1–1.5B in revenue, although actual purchases depend on customer demand and AAOI's ability to supply. Manufacturing equipment capacity has increased from roughly 200K units/month in Q2 to 330K today. Management now expects over 500K units/month by year-end, down from its previous 650K target. For 2027, the target actually increased from 930K to over 1M units/month, but the US expansion is taking longer due to electrical power and construction issues. The $471M monthly revenue run-rate milestone has moved from around mid-2027 toward year-end 2027. Management expects demand for 800G and 1.6T to exceed production capacity throughout 2027. My takeaway: I don't see evidence of demand deterioration in this report. But AAOI's ability to convert that demand into revenue is clearly progressing slower than previously expected. A strong backlog and growing customer orders won't automatically make those challenges disappear.
View original →Disappointed with $AAOI. Not surprised. Here's my recap on their annual guidance after Q1 call. https://t.co/xjpHfa7ngQ
View original →Maybe it sounds like a cliché. Maybe it is one. Doesn't really matter, but the market is a great teacher. Human behavior, psychology, mental strength, fear, hope, greed. You name it. I'll use $NBIS, $CIFR, $AAOI and similar names as examples. Just a few months ago, these were attractive stocks. People sharing research were thanked for their work. Everything was great. Prices were going up. Fast forward a few months. Now the stocks are pure shit. The same people sharing research are suddenly clown ape grifting degenerates who know nothing about the market. Everything is terrible. Prices are going down. Of course, fundamentals change, and research can be wrong. There's nothing wrong with questioning someone's thesis. But if you're judging the quality of someone's research based on a few months of price action, maybe the clown you're looking for is the one staring back at you from your bathroom mirror.
View original →I'm getting questions like: - Is the bottom in? - Should I buy the dip? - What should I do with my XYZ options? - Should I relocate my funds into an ETF? - Should I sell $AAOI and buy $CRDO? I'm not a financial advisor. I cannot make these calls for anyone. I already get enough hate for deep dives of stocks that go down. Now, imagine telling people what to do with their money. That's a responsibility I don't need. What I can say: - This is not a market for trading. - Cash is a position, too. - DCAing always makes sense. - Always prioritize quality, regardless of the state of the market. - Don't act on emotions. - And f**k the bears.
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