WELLWelltowerBearishWelltower

1w ago on

$WELL finally touched its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since April 2023. The stock nearly lost 10% at one point after earnings, but it has recovered most of the loss since (up 2% in pre-market today). I’m not touching it here. It still feels like better levels will come next year—I’m targeting $195 (as low as $181). The long-term demand story remains one of the best in REITs (arguably in all stocks); the question is simply the price you pay for it.

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3w ago on

The yields have been volatile after the hot CPI print this morning, but overall the curve is bear-flattening. If CPI keeps grinding higher, we might see the belly-to-long-end inverted, which might be a relatively good scenario for $TLT. As expected, REITs are getting hammered—the Dow Jones All Equity REIT Index was down more than 1% at one point but has recovered to -0.7%. Some names are holding up very well, in particular senior housing like $WELL and $VTR, and triple-net retail names like $O, $ADC, and $NNN. They are all positive at mid-morning. I added outsized positions in $O, $ADC, and $TLT in the pre-market today.

WELLWelltowerNeutralWelltowerHSTHost Hotels & ResortsBullishHost Hotels & ResortsPEBPebblebrook HotelBullishPebblebrook HotelRHPRyman Hospitality PropsBullishRyman Hospitality PropsCDPCOPT Defense PropsNeutralCOPT Defense PropsDOCHealthpeak PropertiesNeutralHealthpeak PropertiesEQIXEquinixNeutralEquinixIRMIron MountainNeutralIron MountainJANJanus LivingNeutralJanus LivingMACMacerichNeutralMacerichOUTOutfront MediaNeutralOutfront Media

10/10/2026 on

With rising yields, REITs have given back a chunk of their YTD gains. The Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index is +8.9% YTD, down from a peak of +20.3% in late July. But not all sectors have felt the same. Hotel REITs have been largely immune to the downside so far, and many names have actually continued to grind higher since early September, even as the broader sector has sold off. The sector has been supported by improving fundamentals (aided by event-driven demand in 2026) and rising asset values. As long as the economy holds and RevPAR growth remains positive, the setup looks constructive. All YTD, dividend-adjusted: $CLDT +106% $PEB +66% $RLJ +54% $PK +49% $DRH +42% $APLE +42% $HST +32% $RHP +30% $XHR +29% $SHO +27% Outside the hotel sector, a few notable $1B+ REITs have significantly outperformed the overall sector. Some names might surprise you. $IRM (Data center) +41% $CBL (Retail) +37% $EQIX (Data center) +36% $OUT (Advertising) +31% litecoin:native (Healthcare) +28% $CDP (Office) +25% $MAC (Retail) +23% $LAMR (Advertising) +22% $WELL (Healthcare) +22% $DOC (Healthcare) +22% The outperformance of $OUT and $LAMR reflects strong demand for digitized outdoor advertising. $CBL and $MAC are more turnaround stories, while $DOC’s outperformance is most likely linked to its stake in $JAN. In short, companies with pricing power/shorter pricing cycles and secular/cyclical tailwinds have decoupled from the more rate-sensitive, longer-duration REITs.

BullishWELLWelltowerWelltowerAAPLAppleAppleGOOGLAlphabetAlphabet

9/30/2026 on

While the overall REIT sector is getting shaken out by this and that, one REIT has been moving in a different dimension: $WELL The stock hasn't touched its 200-day SMA since April 2023 — more than three years — while rising about 220%. Over that stretch, revenue roughly doubled and normalized FFO grew about 80%. The stock kept climbing without giving any clean reset. In my view, its biggest advantage is its capital-markets flywheel: strong institutional backing and ATM issuance at high multiples have let the company grow rapidly while keeping leverage low. I expect the stock to keep performing (I have no position), but at these multiples, I would rather just buy $AAPL or $GOOGL, for example.

NeutralWELLWelltowerWelltowerAMTAmerican TowerAmerican TowerDLRDigital Realty TrustDigital Realty TrustEQIXEquinixEquinixORealty IncomeRealty IncomePLDPrologisPrologisPSAPublic StoragePublic StorageVTRVentasVentas

9/24/2026 on

The 10 largest REITs account for more than half of the U.S. equity REIT universe: $WELL, $PLD, $EQIX, $AMT, $SPG, $DLR, $PSA, $O, $VMRK, and $VTR. That’s a high degree of concentration, so market-cap-weighted passive REIT ETFs are essentially concentrated bets on these names—similar to the Big Tech-heavy S&P 500. The largest REITs typically have cheaper capital, better access to development pipelines, and more institutional sponsorship. Those advantages compound.