SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

Today on

This chart is featured in our piece “Did Market Concentration & Speculative Fervor Break Beta?” https://t.co/lTjjEeNLnH It shows the share of S&P 500 stocks with a negative six-month beta: 27.7% today, compared to a 0.7% average between 1989-2023 and the previous record of 17.3% that was set during the dot-com bubble. The index has split in two. High Beta stocks, comprising 43% of the index, carry a 2.10 beta and trade at 6.7x sales, the 99th percentile of their history. Low Beta stocks carry a -0.51 beta and trade at 1.7x sales. Low Beta yields 5.0% in FCF and 4.4% in total shareholder yield, against 1.6% and 0.9% respectively for High Beta. Low Beta currently pays its owners nearly 5x as much cash, at a quarter of the price.

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

Yesterday on

New piece! “Did Market Concentration & Speculative Fervor Break Beta?” highlights that 27.7% of S&P 500 stocks now carry a negative six-month beta. From 1989-2023 that share averaged 0.7%, and the prior record of 17.3% reached during the dot-com bubble has been broken in each of the last four months. The index has essentially split in two. The highest-beta fifth of the S&P 500, comprising 43% of its market cap, carries a beta of 2.10. The lowest fifth sits at -0.51, a reading that has been negative in only 17 months since 1989. The 2.6 point gap between them is the widest in almost 4 decades of data. None of this shows up in the index’s own risk statistics, because a handful of mega-cap Tech stocks are generating nearly all of the index’s volatility. https://t.co/4zqxyACKpl

SPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500

2w ago on

Our piece “From A Collection of Unkept Promises to the Thirty Largest Stocks” highlights a major price gap within the S&P 500. The 30 largest stocks trade at 5.6x sales feature a 1% FCF yield ex-SBC. The other 470 trade at 2.3x sales with a 3% FCF yield. The top 30 do earn more: net margins of 34% vs. 17% for the other 470. However, per dollar of free cash flow, investors pay 3x as much for it. Buy an index fund today and half your investment rides on 30 stocks trading at the richest multiples in modern history. https://t.co/rMDC5VoSdD

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

3w ago on

This chart is featured in our piece “The High Price of High Volatility” https://t.co/UQqnFcEkuv It shows High Volatility stocks trading at 5.2x sales, compared to 3.1x for Low Volatility stocks and 3.5x for the S&P 500. High Volatility's multiple has more than doubled from 2.3x at the end of 2022. The last time investors paid this much for each dollar of High Volatility sales was during the dot-com bubble.

SPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500

10/11/2026 on

This table is featured in our piece “From A Collection of Unkept Promises to the Thirty Largest Stocks” https://t.co/ZVs9a4vwWA It compares the 30 largest U.S. stocks with the rest of the S&P 500. The top 30 trade at a 1% FCF yield (ex-SBC) and 5.6x sales, while the other 470 trade at a 3% FCF yield and 2.3x sales. Bear in mind that those 30 names now represent 48% of total U.S. market value. The prior record was 39.7%, set in September 2001. Investors who buy the index today entails that half your money sits in the group with 1/3 the FCF yield and ~70% more market risk.