Called $XAU bullish on Nov 18, 2023: $XAU rose 167% in 26 months.
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Chief Crypto Analyst, @Realvision | Founder, Helios Analytics | Built the crypto research product, Bloomberg Intelligence | Freedom over Fear. Always. #Bitcoin
accuracy score 59.7 on BTC over 430 BTC calls · 1,665 days of data · rank 69 of 141 BTC analysts (top 48.9% of the pool) · top 4.60% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 11, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 430 directional calls on BTC by @Jamie1Coutts on X since Sep 2021: ranked #69 of 141 analysts scored on BTC by accuracy — in the Top 5% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (13)
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 BTC calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @Jamie1Coutts to submit corrections.
Called $XAU bullish on Nov 18, 2023: $XAU rose 167% in 26 months.
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So far, $BTC has held the $75k support level; below it is an air pocket to mid-$60k, and several key trend filters flip bearish. Conversely, if it breaks $87k, the August trend reversal will be confirmed across a range of critical weekly technical and onchain data levels. 🍿 https://t.co/UAUjhSQGWN
View original →Bitcoin needs to hold the low $70,000 levels for the market regime to remain bullish. Crypto breadth, which posted its strongest, most sustained outperformance in over a year, has collapsed. Washed-out levels but bitcoin:native support needs to hold. Liquidity is tighter than what the markets are comfortable with. Several years of Growth in Debt > liquidity, and this is the inevitable outcome. The response is also inevitable, although the mechanism of action is more dynamic and unclear this time round --> Fed kneecapped, Treasury numero uno. So expect a combo of actions; TGA drawdown, buybacks, increasing short-end issuance, even potentially gold revaluation. Next 3-6 months will be wild.
View original →Bitcoin is down 10% after the biggest hack in history. Meanwhile, against its two rival asset classes ($NDX & $GLD), it's grinding higher, as it has during previous cycle inflections. The network faces headwinds, including deteriorating global liquidity, which is tied to where we are in the 5-year refinancing cycle. This is where bitcoin:native is out of sync for the first time in its very short history. There is a signal in that.
View original →People were writing off Bitcoin's network. Well, the compute is coming back on. Hash rate (14d avg) dropped 23% from the Oct record into Feb, deepest fall since the 2021 China ban. Part of that was a winter storm, but the story that stuck was miners leaving for AI. It bounced, then slid again into July. Since the 17 July low its up 21%, back within 6% of the record. +185 EH/s in 102 days, the most raw hash added in any rebound since 2018 (mid pack in % terms). Why this matters: - Security. Every exahash makes attacking Bitcoin more expensive. - Conviction. Miners are adding on razor thin margins. - Energy. Mining is a flexible load grids can switch off when needed. Does it call price? Definitely not on its own. After past recoveries hit this stage BTC was up a year later 6 times out of 9, typically +66%. On any random day since 2018 its up a year later 65% of the time, typically +47%. Similar odds, slightly bigger gains. We're 35% off the high. I read it as bullish. North star metric for me. Since my BI days my go-to on mining and energy grids has been @DSBatten. Follow his work.
View original →Crypto has been down this month, yet something beneath it looks different. Applications may finally deserve attention as viable investments. For spot buyers, without the pre-TGE terms given to insiders and VCs, apps have been a diabolical trade. The average scored app lost 84% in 2022 then lagged smart-contract platforms in the bull market. Liquidity gathered around Bitcoin first, then Ethereum and larger platforms. A useful DeFi product was no guarantee of a rewarding token. Even if a value-accrual mechanism existed, the market didn't seem to care. Unlocks, cyclical casino demand and regulatory hostility undermined the investment case at every turn. Now the old financial system needs new rails. The GENIUS Act and a more constructive SEC/CFTC approach give exchanges, banks, asset managers and lenders reason to explore on-chain markets. I see an open financial system taking shape, with new businesses run by code. Some applications are becoming serious businesses, with real revenues, operating metrics that outshine legacy firms, and I finally see capital discipline in parts of the sector. Since March 2025, the top third of scored apps on my Quality screen gained 64.8% net while the average lost 10.6%. That is hard to ignore. But it's < 2 years of data in a 5-year backtest, not live proof of alpha; over the full period since 2022, the top third trails the average. We need to follow it live. Ar @RealVision, I am integrating a new Helios Analytics dashboard for Alpha and Pro members this week. I think it will be essential for understanding what sits behind a token, alongside adoption, valuation, technicals and liquidity. If you haven't already, join us here https://t.co/oApcjkVLeY
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