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4d ago on

Alpha Trade is out! | Friday 11/6 Subscribe today! 👇🏼 https://t.co/59YMFIdcHr 🌽 Dec #Corn 441'4, up 1 1/2 on short covering but down 1.4% on the week, its 6th straight weekly loss. The weekly chart turned bearish as the blue avg crossed under the cyan and magenta. The low at 438'4 held the 0.786 at 439'2 and the Jun-Jul volume shelf near 443. Below that, 431'6 is next. Mar 455'2 has to hold 454 on the close, or it heads toward 439. Sell bounces toward 460 to 463. 🌱 Jan #Soybeans 1193'6, in the decision area. It needs to hold 1175'4 on the close, or 1160 to 1150 is next. Mar 1199'2 lost the 1212 0.5, and 1178 is the line in the sand. Price unsold beans on bounces toward 1208 to 1227. 🌾 Dec Chicago #Wheat 591'2, sitting on the 590 base. Momentum and trend are both bearish. High-volume support sits at 584, 579 and 564, so sell 600 to 610. Dec KC 632'4 is at its lowest level since March and stays bearish under 670, with 620 and 600 next. #Russia #Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi Nov 10 to 11. 📊 #USDA report Tuesday. The trade expects a corn crop of 15.962B bu, down from 16.034B in October, which would still be the 2nd largest ever. Beans are seen at a record 4.597B bu. 🏦 #COT: funds sold all 7 markets for a 3rd straight week. #Corn flipped net short at −22,900 after selling 78,843, the first net short since June 30. Meal posted its 2nd biggest weekly sell since 2006 and beans their 8th biggest. Chicago wheat has now been sold 9 weeks in a row. 📍 #Basis: corn regional averages run −0.33 to −1.29 and average −0.98, weakest in western MN. Beans run −0.25 to −0.73 and average −0.53. Harvest pressure is still on the cash market. 🐂 Dec #LiveCattle $LE 214.05, down 6.90 on the week, hit an 11-month low. Jan #FeederCattle $GF 318.375 lost 13.40. Southern cash cattle traded 218, down 7, northern dressed 335 to 340, and Choice boxed beef 361.50. Protect inventory with puts. 🛢️ #CrudeOil $CL near $91, down nearly 12% on the week. Iran sent a nuclear proposal through #Qatar, but Hormuz tanker attacks are running at a near-record pace. Use the dip to lock in fuel needs. ⛽ #HeatingOil $HO back above $4.30 off the $4.20 low. Distillate stocks are 13% under the 5yr avg and at a record seasonal low, and Russia plans to extend its diesel export ban through January. Book #Diesel on dips. 💵 #Dollar $DX 102.2, up 0.6% after October jobs came in at +165K vs 65K expected and unemployment fell to 4.1%. That raises the odds of a December Fed hike and is another headwind for US exports. 📈 #SP500 $ES up about 1% and Nasdaq about 2% Friday on a chip rebound, but down about 3% and 5% for the week. The Nasdaq is in a correction. 10yr 4.86% after touching 4.9%. Lock in operating loan rates before year end. 🌡️ The ECMWF 46-day outlook runs the whole Corn Belt +5 to +11 degrees above normal through Dec 22, warmest in the #Dakotas and #Minnesota. The 7-day is dry, so harvest wraps up with no weather premium. #Brazil gets a solid 50 to 100 mm across central soybean country.

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1w ago on

Alpha Trade | Friday 10/30 Sign Up Today Here! 👇🏼 https://t.co/59YMFIdcHr 🚜 Midwest basis steady to lower as #harvest26 rolls, beans 79% and corn 60% done per #USDA. Flash sales of 165K and 132K mt of beans to unknown. Weekly bean sales 2.58M mt, corn 1.30M mt. Soft on logistics, not demand. 🌽 Dec #Corn $ZC 447'6 on the weekly, 5th straight lower close, blue 9 wk EMA crossed under purple. Sitting on 443 to 449 0.5 and 0.618 FR plus the Jul volume node. Mar $461 on the 459'2 to 465'2 shelf. Bounce zone, not short zone. Sell 470 to 480 rallies. 🌱 Jan #Soybeans 1234'2 lost 1268 and 1244'4, pressing the 1218'2 to 1243'4 fib cluster. Mar 1243'6 on the 1240'6 shelf with an air pocket to 1208 below. Weekly close under 1218 and the top is in. Add new crop sales into 1253 to 1268. 🌾 Dec Chicago #Wheat 603'4, 190 cents off the Sep high, broke the Dec '25 TL and crossed bearish. Look for a low 578'6 to 597. Dec KC 644'2 broke its Dec '25 TL, bearish crossover, next 620 to 600. Sell 672 to 693. Trend stays down until 628'4 and 715 clear. 🛢️ #CrudeOil near $104, up 15% in October on #Iran strike talk, Hormuz tanker incidents and a Ukrainian hit on a #Russia refinery. Lock in fuel and drying costs now. ⛽ #HeatingOil near $4.60, 3 week low on EU and #China supply releases and Russian diesel talk. Distillates still 10% under the 5yr avg. Book #Diesel on this dip. 💵 #Dollar $DX near 102, up 0.5% for October. Q3 GDP 3.4%, PCE up 0.5%, 72% odds of a Dec Fed hike. Headwind for #US exports vs #Brazil. 📈 #SP500 $ES down 2%, Nasdaq down 4% on Intel, Amazon and Alphabet misses. Nasdaq off 7% for October. 10yr 4.93% near 7 wk lows, down 36 bps on the month. 🌡️ ECMWF 7 day: 11 to 17 degrees above normal across #Iowa, #Minnesota, #Illinois, #Michigan, 7 to 11 above in #Nebraska, #Kansas, #Dakotas. Wide open harvest window, no weather premium. 15 day 🌎 #Brazil: Mato Grosso 15 to 60+ mm dry during bean planting, S Brazil and N #Argentina wet. First real SA weather story, mild support for beans.

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10/9/2026 on

Alpha Trade Weekly Video | Friday 10/9 👇🏼 https://t.co/59YMFIdcHr 🇺🇸 #USDA shock: #Corn crop raised to 16.034B bu, yield 181.2 bpa vs 178.5. Ending stocks up 282M bu. Trade expected a cut. Limit down. 🌽 Dec #Corn $ZC 479'6 lost the Jun TL and the 487'6 0.5 FR, tested 473'0 on the low. Mar 494'2 under 502'4. Sell bounces into 487 to 492, own puts under 473. 🌱 Nov #Soybeans $ZS 1292 bounced off a 6 week low at 1270, pinned on both EMAs. Jan 1308'6 under 1311. Scale sales into 1315 to 1332, puts on a close under 1270. 🌾 Dec Chicago #Wheat $ZW 671 lost the Aug TL, 6th straight weekly loss, holding 668'4 0.618 FR. Dec KC $KE 719'2 held 706 to 711 support. No new sales until 698'4 and 742'1 clear. 🛢️ #CrudeOil $CL near $92 on #Iran tanker attacks, record Gulf freight and Hurricane Isaias shutting in 60%+ of GoM output. #StrategicPetroleumReserve near record low. ⛽ #HeatingOil $HO above $4.80, distillates 12% below the 5yr avg. #Russia export limits, #China halts fuel exports for Oct. Book harvest and winter #Diesel now. 💵 #Dollar $DX near 102.1, 4th straight weekly gain, highest since Apr 2025. Headwind for #US grain exports. 📈 #SP500 $ES up 0.4%, Nasdaq up 0.6% on a tech rebound. 10yr $ZN 5.26%. 69% odds of a Dec Fed hike. Lock in fixed rates on operating notes. 🌧️ ECMWF 7 day: 2 to 3+ inches across S #Iowa, N #Missouri, E #Kansas, #Oklahoma. Harvest pause, HRW moisture. #Minnesota and #Dakotas stay dry. Seasonal has Mato Grosso dry, S #Brazil and #Paraguay wet. Weather story for beans.

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10/6/2026 on

4hr $ES Note. BREAKOUT! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/zLoudybxAl

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9/25/2026 on

What a week… Trump says farmers will be happy… Dec corn 528, Nov beans 1319 test highs, wheat breaks trend, crude sinks 7%, 10yr at 5.2%. Alpha Takes 👇🏼 https://t.co/59YMFIcERT 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi tea in the Red Room. "Farmers are going to be really happy." No tonnage, no timeline. Trade the sentiment, not the volume. 🌽 Dec #Corn 528'2 holding the 0.236 FR on the weekly. Mar 542'0 sitting on its 20 day EMA. Sell 524 to 545 strength, buy 503 to 514 dips. 🌱 Nov #Soybeans 1319 above the Mar TL. Jan 1332'4 with 4 rejections at 1345. Price new crop here, own calls in case #China buys. 🌾 Dec Chicago #Wheat 703'2 lost the Jun TL and both EMAs. Air pocket under 693 to 654. Dec KC 762 retraced 80% of the rally. 🛢️ #CrudeOil near 92, down 7.4% on the week. #Iran offers a 7 day Hormuz reopening. #HeatingOil under 4.70 with distillates 12% below the 5yr avg. 💵 #Dollar rejected at July highs, still up 1% on the week. #Japan intervention talk. Every point makes #US beans less competitive vs #Brazil (may not matter)… 📈 #SP500 $ES up 0.5% on lower oil. 10yr $ZN at 5.2%, highest since the mid 2007. 66% odds of a Fed hike next month. Storage costs real money now. 🌧️ GFS shows 4+ inches across Iowa, E Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas through late Oct. Harvest friction, cash support. ECMWF has Mato Grosso dry, S #Brazil and #Argentina wet.