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Alpha Trade is out! | Friday 11/6 Subscribe today! 👇🏼 https://t.co/59YMFIdcHr 🌽 Dec #Corn 441'4, up 1 1/2 on short covering but down 1.4% on the week, its 6th straight weekly loss. The weekly chart turned bearish as the blue avg crossed under the cyan and magenta. The low at 438'4 held the 0.786 at 439'2 and the Jun-Jul volume shelf near 443. Below that, 431'6 is next. Mar 455'2 has to hold 454 on the close, or it heads toward 439. Sell bounces toward 460 to 463. 🌱 Jan #Soybeans 1193'6, in the decision area. It needs to hold 1175'4 on the close, or 1160 to 1150 is next. Mar 1199'2 lost the 1212 0.5, and 1178 is the line in the sand. Price unsold beans on bounces toward 1208 to 1227. 🌾 Dec Chicago #Wheat 591'2, sitting on the 590 base. Momentum and trend are both bearish. High-volume support sits at 584, 579 and 564, so sell 600 to 610. Dec KC 632'4 is at its lowest level since March and stays bearish under 670, with 620 and 600 next. #Russia #Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi Nov 10 to 11. 📊 #USDA report Tuesday. The trade expects a corn crop of 15.962B bu, down from 16.034B in October, which would still be the 2nd largest ever. Beans are seen at a record 4.597B bu. 🏦 #COT: funds sold all 7 markets for a 3rd straight week. #Corn flipped net short at −22,900 after selling 78,843, the first net short since June 30. Meal posted its 2nd biggest weekly sell since 2006 and beans their 8th biggest. Chicago wheat has now been sold 9 weeks in a row. 📍 #Basis: corn regional averages run −0.33 to −1.29 and average −0.98, weakest in western MN. Beans run −0.25 to −0.73 and average −0.53. Harvest pressure is still on the cash market. 🐂 Dec #LiveCattle $LE 214.05, down 6.90 on the week, hit an 11-month low. Jan #FeederCattle $GF 318.375 lost 13.40. Southern cash cattle traded 218, down 7, northern dressed 335 to 340, and Choice boxed beef 361.50. Protect inventory with puts. 🛢️ #CrudeOil $CL near $91, down nearly 12% on the week. Iran sent a nuclear proposal through #Qatar, but Hormuz tanker attacks are running at a near-record pace. Use the dip to lock in fuel needs. ⛽ #HeatingOil $HO back above $4.30 off the $4.20 low. Distillate stocks are 13% under the 5yr avg and at a record seasonal low, and Russia plans to extend its diesel export ban through January. Book #Diesel on dips. 💵 #Dollar $DX 102.2, up 0.6% after October jobs came in at +165K vs 65K expected and unemployment fell to 4.1%. That raises the odds of a December Fed hike and is another headwind for US exports. 📈 #SP500 $ES up about 1% and Nasdaq about 2% Friday on a chip rebound, but down about 3% and 5% for the week. The Nasdaq is in a correction. 10yr 4.86% after touching 4.9%. Lock in operating loan rates before year end. 🌡️ The ECMWF 46-day outlook runs the whole Corn Belt +5 to +11 degrees above normal through Dec 22, warmest in the #Dakotas and #Minnesota. The 7-day is dry, so harvest wraps up with no weather premium. #Brazil gets a solid 50 to 100 mm across central soybean country.

ALPHA TRADE WEEKLY WRAP | Oct 16 👇🏼 https://t.co/59YMFIcERT 🌽 #Corn Dec 474'2, testing 473 support (0.618 + Aug trendline). Mar 486'4 already under 488. Third straight weekly loss. 🌱 #Soybeans Nov 1261'2, 7-week low, down 2.4% on the week despite 1.358 MMT in China sales. Jan 1275'6 leaning on 1265'4. 🌾 #Wheat Dec Chicago 660'4, seventh straight weekly drop. KC Dec 704 slips under the 706-712 support zone. 🌧️ #Weather 🇧🇷 Brazil: ECMWF 7-day wet for Mato Grosso planting, but CFS flags a dry Oct-Dec for the Center-West. Watch it. 🌎 #Macro 🛢️ $CL near $98, up 6%+ as Hormuz attacks outweigh the IEA release. Heating oil under $4.80 but distillates sit 12% below average. 📈 #Equities ES 🔻 1.1%, NQ 100 🔻 2.5% as AI credit worries hit. 10-yr 5.12%. $DXY 101.6, first weekly loss in four. Market sees a December Fed hike at 77%. 💭 Harvest pressure is winning in grains until closed about key shorter term moving averages.

Dec WTI continues to push higher +2.3 but close will be important. Watch 97.88 closely. Above here, this mkt could be looking at +105. Mkt remains technically friendly. Currently trading at 4 wk highs, SPR still a problem. Rig count down 3 this wk. “Oil prices will fall soon” Guess who… #energy #oatt #oott 🛢️

Crude Oil Notes - Updated 🛢️📝 https://t.co/oBF3t1BFXe https://t.co/CYZAN7Vitt

China’s Imported Soybeans vs Brent Crude Oil in #cmdtyView! FARMERS, PAY ATTENTION! 🇨🇳 China buys more soybeans from overseas than anyone on earth, and there’s futures contract on the Dalian exchange that tracks the price of those imported beans in Chinese currency. It’s the cleanest read we have on what China is willing to pay. The other area chart is Brent crude oil, the world benchmark for oil, which drives the cost of shipping those beans across the ocean and the value of soybean oil as a fuel ingredient. 🔸 Through the summer, both moved together. Oil rallied, Chinese bean prices rallied. Then in mid-September they split. Oil kept going and is now at $106 a barrel, while Chinese bean prices stopped and have gone sideways for four weeks. 🔸 When oil is this expensive, it costs more to ship beans, soybean oil is worth more as fuel, and overall input costs go up. That normally pushes bean prices higher over time. The fact that Chinese bean prices paused instead of following tells you one of two things: either oil is spiking on Middle East risk that beans have no reason to track, or beans are simply lagging and will catch up. Neither of those is bad news for beans. It only turns bad if oil falls and bean prices break down too. 🔸After a big summer rally, the price has settled into a tight, slowly drifting-lower channel. It has given back less than a third of the gains. Patterns like this, a big run, then a shallow pause, usually resolve in the direction of the original move. That’s the main reason I’m leaning toward higher prices. 🔸IMO, there's a 60% chance Chinese bean prices break higher over the next three to four weeks and retest the September highs. About a 30% chance the pattern fails and prices drop 3–4%. A small chance of a sharp spike if oil keeps running. 🔸So two practical takeaways. First, if the November contract drops in early November, that’s probably the mechanical pull toward delivery, not a sign that China stopped buying. Second, the January contract is the one to watch for the real signal, and it’s already pushing against the top of the channel. 🔸The gap between the November price and the January price. Right now January is about 46 yuan higher than November. That gap is “the carry” basically what the market pays you to hold beans for two months. If that gap stays roughly where it is or shrinks while prices rise, Chinese buyers want beans and the rally is real. If the gap balloons say past 70–80 it means nobody wants beans right now and the higher prices on the later months are just reflecting the cost of shipping and tariffs. That version of a rally doesn’t hold up. WHY A US FARMER SHOULD CARE: 🔹China is paying full price for beans through January and discounting them sharply from April onward, when Brazil’s harvest hits the market. If Chinese prices break higher from here, it helps support US export demand through the winter. If they break down, it’s an early warning that China’s buying is lighter than expected heading into December, and that shows up in Chicago prices.