Called $ETH bearish on Apr 23, 2023: $ETH fell 16% over the next 6 months.
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Always trader, often shitposter, sometimes educator. @breakoutprop
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on BTC by @CryptoCred on X since Apr 2021: not yet scored on BTC (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Relative view by default: Cred’s calls are mostly nuanced, so each day is read against their usual tone.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @CryptoCred to submit corrections.
Called $ETH bearish on Apr 23, 2023: $ETH fell 16% over the next 6 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
This was one of the highest volatility days in recent crypto history. Was I long the BTC breakout? No. Did I catch the HYPE news? No. But do I have a tactical pool of capital that’s ready to deploy with a clear plan if a new trend forms? Also no.
View original →This is a huge inflection point for BTC after one of the largest short liquidation events in recent history I've spent the last 4 hours studying ETF flows, Microstrategy credit facilities, cross-exchange liquidity and funding rates, as well as prime OTC desk inventory They all point to the same inevitable conclusion: If it keeps going up, then the market is bullish If it stops going up and goes down, then the market is bearish
View original →“A bunch of bad stuff happened and BTC didn’t go down 👀” I generally like these relative strength arguments But can stuff go up please? Been hearing this for months It’s turning into “I ate 10 punches but didn’t get knocked out”
View original →There have been a few key changes in crypto market structure. I've written about this topic before but I found myself carrying some stale epistemological baggage about how the market used to be versus what it is at the moment, so thought I'd share. 1. More coins than ever before and the barrier to creating new coins has never been lower. 2. More competition for the hot ball of money (AI, semis, tech, even commodities) and instruments like 0DTE options - all of which are very attractive to normies. 3. Change in participant type and sophistication - ETFs, more tradfi shops, suits etc. 4. Normie flows that used to concentrate around a few CEXes and a limited token set have been fragmented by the infinite listings and existence of the trenches. There are fewer normie flows, they're spread too thin, and it's difficult to come back to the casino if you get dumped on for holding longer than 15 seconds. The main attractor to crypto used to be outsized, long-lasting, and well-distributed trend and momentum effects that were easy to access because there weren't that many venues or coins. That's basically up only/alt season i.e. multi-month periods that were responsible for a disproportionate amount of a crypto trader's lifetime P&L. A rising tide lifting all boats is an overused but appropriate analogy - it didn't really matter what coins you bought. If you got the broader market conditions right, you'd enjoy significant uplift and basically get bailed out even if you made bad picks. In the current paradigm you can't afford to make bad picks. To be precise: in previous cycles if you got the conditions right but the assets wrong, you'd still make money but underperform. In the current cycle (even from the most recent BTC run) if you got conditions right but the assets wrong, you got shafted. So asset selection went from a nice-to-have enhancer to one of the main drivers of returns, even if BTC is going up. That's a pretty significant departure from what we've dealt with in the past This type of dispersion is a symptom of the market maturing. I think that's a net good thing and is likely to incentivise more intelligent token design, less ghost chain VC slop etc. But that's a forward-looking view, and at the moment we're trapped in this awkward transition phase where the old rules don't really apply but we haven't figured out a new framework yet e.g. top N coins by market cap are still mostly shit vs quality. Maybe I'm wrong and everything changes and we go back to the market-wide altseason paradigm when conditions are right. This could all be cyclical, but I think that's less compelling than before given the dispersion we saw on the way up too vs just to the downside. I think it's a good time (especially with other markets and asset classes going crazy) to revisit where crypto sits in the speculative stack and how to approach it as the market is changing. Cheers.
View original →How I feel showing up to trade commodities and monitor the situation because BTC is stuck chopping and alts are shit https://t.co/LRPhasJaE2
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