Statements like this are all too common. “The New York Times has reported that the first small reactor at Clinch River could cost as much as six times the price of building a comparably sized gas-fired plant, based on a previous TVA estimate.” They should be accompanied by something similar to the following: “The gas plant would require an uninterrupted supply of natural gas, the cost of which starts at 4 times the cost of an equivalent quantity of nuclear fuel. In some places and at some times, the cost of fueling a natural gas plant can be 10 times - or more - than the cost of fueling a nuclear reactor. The reactor’s fuel needs to be shuffled and partially replaced every 18 - 24 months.” IOW - comparing the capital cost of a nuclear plant with the capital cost of a gas plant is an incomplete discussion.

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4w ago on

Is anyone surprised by the fact that crude oil carriers are more willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz than refined petroleum products or LNG carriers? Crude shipments are now 70% - 80% of pre-war levels, while refined products and LNG are 25% or less.

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10/12/2026 on

Serious observers of the global liquified natural gas trade are worried that the market is set up for severe price volatility. Supplies are tight due to conflicts and shut-ins, leading to enormous profits for those whose production is not affected. That's incentivizing major investment flows to new projects that will increase supply. But conflicts eventually end and shut in supply can return. When added to new supply there will be an oversupply of gas looking for customers. It will likely lead to intense price competition and rapid market collapse. A lengthy discussion on @ColumbiaUEnergy's Sep 29 episode laid out these risks in great detail. The experts overlooked a key variable - nuclear energy production. NEW nuclear plants won't make any difference, but Asia still has more than a dozen of already completed, safe and operable nuclear reactors that are being kept off line for a variety of political reasons. (18 in Japan alone). Dormant nuclear plants can't start operating overnight, but the time to a restart is similar to the time needed for new supplies of gas from places that need new infrastructure completion. Each time a 1 GWe nuclear plant begins operating, the demand for natural gas falls by about 150-180 MMcf/day (~3,000-3,600 tonnes LNG/day). Without the unjustified shutdown of 54 reactors in Japan after 3-11-11, the global LNG trade would be missing its current champion completely. Lucrative long term contracts for LNG executed by Japanese buyers were essential for achieving FID for US LNG export terminals and other components of the US LNG infrastructure. Means, motive and opportunity offer a good explanation for the sector's unnatural and stubbornly persistent coma.

The Carlsbad (NM) City Council has taken action that might permanently halt Holtec's licensed – but now abandoned – Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation in southeaster NW. By a unanimous vote, the council approved an easement for a natural gas pipeline that will cross the site. That might be a real obstacle for building any future waste storage infrastructure. Holtec and the Eddy-Lea Energy Alliance, its partner in the project, terminated their contract and abandoned the project in Oct 2025. But licenses for nuclear facilities have significant value and can be sold to other parties that might have different assets, capabilities and business plans. It would be difficult, however, for any other party to overcome the handicap of an operating natural gas pipeline installed through the planned site. IMO, of course.

My advice - worry less about new gas power generation CAPACITY numbers. Spend more effort evaluating effects of the annual energy generation from the added power plants. Idle capacity doesn’t consume natural gas or produce pollution. But when used to produce large quantities of electricity…