In the last 2+ weeks, Brent Crude Oil (blue) has declined 22%, from $116.72 on October 23rd to $90.56 today. But the 10-year yield (black) has declined by only 10 basis points (from 4.99% on Oct 23 to 4.89% today). The bond market is NOT about crude prices. https://t.co/ITS2sBhVLV

I agree, the market needs to start looking at the price of the stuff we use, distillates (gasoline/diesel), and not the raw material to make it (crude oil). Diesel prices are soaring, especially in Europe. Consider that Russia/Ukraine might matter more for energy markets. -- Gasoil continues to soar in Europe, as the chart below shows. Gasoil is now well above May’s peak (when crude prices were over $140 per barrel). Europe gets its diesel from Russia, and Ukraine keeps blowing up their refineries. Russian refinery output is down by more than half, and they’re no longer exporting diesel, and there’s a real shortage in Europe right now. -- Gasoil is the raw middle distillate that comes straight out of the refinery, and it serves as the foundation for a whole family of fuels — including road diesel (45% of all gasoil), jet fuel/kerosene (18%), industrial & agricultural off-road diesel (17%), heating oil (12%), and marine (bunker) fuel (8%) — each of which is further processed and refined to meet the specific standards of its end use.

Last week, Vice President Vance said on the @willcain show: "That's goal number one. Keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country." --- Note that he said goal number two was stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. This is consistent with the view I picked up from @Geo_papic ... oil is the independent variable in the war, not the dependent variable. This means @potus wakes up every morning, looks at the price of oil, and that dictates his prosecution of the war. Not the war dictates where the price of oil will go. @potus is trying to manage oil prices first, the war second. Understanding this will clear up a lot of the confusion about oil price movements. The market knows how to get @potus to react, move the price of oil. Not the other way around.

Last week, Vice President Vance said on the @willcain show: "That's goal number one. Keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country." --- Note that he said goal number two was stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. This is consistent with the view I picked up from @Geo_papic ... oil is the independent variable in the war, not the dependent variable. This means @potus wakes up every morning, looks at the price of oil, and that dictates his prosecution of the war. Not the war should dictates where the price of oil will go. @potus is trying to manage oil prices first, the war second. Understanding this will clear up a lot of the confusion about oil price movements. The market knows how to get @potus to react, move the price of oil. Not the other way around.

As the probability of a Sept rate hike shrinks (red), the 30-year yield (blue) continues to make new 19-year highs (back to 2007), now 5.29%. As I write, WTI crude oil is only up 33 cents today. This is not a reaction to that market. -- "Bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." The high yield in the 30-year will come when the Fed finally panics and hikes rates.