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Today's Corn Belt News Wednesday, November 11, 2026 Tracking agriculture across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Missouri, and the broader Midwest Corn Belt. Crop Progress Snapshot The 2026 U.S. harvest is moving into its final stages despite recent rain disruptions across parts of the central and eastern Belt. According to Monday afternoon's USDA NASS report for the week ending November 8, national corn harvest progress reached 81% complete nationwide, though continuing to lag behind the five year average pace of 86%. Top producer Iowa reached 72% complete as field crews continue to recover ground following early autumn rain delays, while Ohio advanced to 69% harvested. The national soybean harvest is virtually wrapping up, hitting 92% complete nationwide pacing 1 percentage point ahead of the 91% five year average. Iowa soybean harvest reached 93%, while Ohio pushed to 92% complete. Concurrently, winter wheat seeding for the 2027 crop has passed 90% completion, with Ohio reporting 94% planted and emergence tracking on schedule with good to excellent condition ratings. Weather and Outlook Favorable early week fieldwork windows permitted solid machinery progress before scattered showers and a surge of cooler air moved across the Midwest. The recent precipitation boosted topsoil and subsoil moisture reserves across the central and eastern Belt, benefiting newly established winter wheat stands, though briefly stalling combine passes in heavier ground. Forecasters expect seasonable late autumn temperatures to prevail, giving operators clear opportunities to finish remaining corn acres and wrap up fall tillage as soils dry. Markets and Prices Grain markets reacted sharply to Tuesday's bullish November USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. In a major surprise, the USDA slashed the national corn yield by 1.6 bushels per acre down to 179.6 bpa (notably driven by yield cuts in Illinois and Indiana), lowering total U.S. corn production to 15.893 billion bushels and trimming 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.758 billion bushels. Meanwhile, national soybean yield was bumped slightly to 53.3 bpa, but ending stocks were trimmed to 300 million bushels on stronger export pace. On the board, December corn futures (/ZC) trade at 447'0 (447.00 cents per bushel), holding firm following the WASDE release. January soybeans (/ZS) sit at 1224'2 (1224.25 cents per bushel for the Jan '27 contract). Wheat futures show December KC HRW (/KE) at 635'6, Chicago SRW (/ZW) at 593'6, and Minneapolis Spring Wheat (/MWE) at 631'4. Policy and Farm Bill Update Legislative attention remains fixed on the Senate following the House passage of the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567). The multi year legislation, which extends core agricultural safety nets and risk management programs through 2031, is facing rigorous committee debate as lawmakers attempt to reconcile stark regional priorities. Key debates continue to center around the expansion of precision agriculture funding, enhancements to crop insurance structures, and guidelines for rural energy investments. The national security components of the bill, particularly those expanding federal scrutiny over foreign investment in domestic agricultural land and limiting financial assistance for foreign sourced energy developments on prime ground, remain a central point of bipartisan interest. Ethanol Outlook The domestic ethanol complex continues to pull steady corn volume as interior processing margins remain supportive. In the latest WASDE updates, the USDA pegged 2026/27 corn for ethanol use at a solid 5.65 billion bushels. Midwest processing plants maintain robust capacity utilization, continuing to provide key local basis support as terminal receipts shift from peak harvest volume toward post harvest storage pull backs. Fuel and Fertilizer Energy benchmarks reflect steady conditions, with WTI Crude Oil (/CL) holding near $87.34 per barrel and Natural Gas (/NG) trading at $3.375 per MMBtu. The stable crude oil environment maintains predictable baseline transportation expenses for grain hauling and post harvest machinery passes. In retail fertilizer and feed markets, soybean oil (/ZL) is positioned at $63.50/cwt, soybean meal (/ZM) at $325.30/ton, and nitrogen suppliers report steady interest in post harvest fall anhydrous applications as cleared fields permit. Diversification and Resilience Midwest operations are continuing to expand risk mitigation strategies through extended crop rotations, the integration of small grains, and the strategic use of perennials. These practices are being paired with localized bioenergy projects and targeted livestock integration to diversify revenue streams. The broader adoption of these systems is designed to improve long term soil health, optimize internal nutrient cycling, and provide financial buffers against intense market volatility and unpredictable weather patterns. Livestock and Feed Cattle futures found renewed buyer interest following the bullish grain report dynamics. Live Cattle (/LE) is trading near 219.150 cents per pound, Feeder Cattle (/GF) trades near 330.475 cents per pound, and Lean Hogs (/HE) sits near 55.875 cents per pound. Tighter corn production projections are keeping feedlot managers focused on ration cost control, while pasture conditions across the region settle into standard seasonal dormancy. Farmland Sales and Values The 2026 Corn Belt real estate market is displaying noticeable resilience with moderation, marking a clear transition from rapid capital appreciation to a stable, highly selective environment. This shift is driven by tight overall inventory, heightened buyer caution amid compressed crop returns, and localized demand focused strictly on premium acreage. While national farm real estate averages hover around $4,350 per acre, prime cropland throughout the Corn Belt routinely commands double that figure, averaging between $8,000 and $9,000+ per acre. State level metrics highlight a distinct two tiered market where Class A ground holds firm while marginal acres experience minor softening: Iowa: Overall values remain stable to slightly softer, with high quality tillable ground holding firm despite benchmark surveys noting minor aggregate declines of 1.5%. Public auctions average $11,900 per acre for disclosed sales, though highly productive soils with top CSR2 ratings frequently command premiums between $20,000 and $25,600 per acre in strong counties such as Lyon, Sioux, and Johnson. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio: Strong competition for premium tracts persists, pushing exceptional farms to auction results between $14,000 and $22,000+ per acre. The broader eastern Corn Belt shows signs of stabilization, with lower quality or blemished parcels drawing fewer bidders due to rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Nebraska: Trends are mixed across the state, balancing localized benchmark gains with an overall statewide average decline of roughly 1% to $3,905 per acre. High quality irrigated tracts in counties like Butler remain highly sought after at $13,000+ per acre, while pasture prices are well supported by strong cattle market fundamentals. Broader Midwest (MN, MO, SD): Performance remains highly variable. High quality row crop land easily commands auction premiums ranging from $8,000 to $19,000 per acre. Meanwhile, recreational parcels and properties near urban development zones exhibit higher price volatility, though a historically low supply of available farms prevents broad downward price pressure. The combination of limited inventory, steady investor interest, and 1031 tax deferred exchanges keeps the market selective rather than weak. Tight margins and elevated interest rates will likely maintain this steady to soft trend for the remainder of 2026, though well marketed, highly productive tracts will continue to draw active bidding. Other Notes Recent export inspections confirm steady grain shipments to primary international destinations, offering vital demand relief to local terminals. Concurrently, regional supply chains are adapting to shifting environmental standards as biofuel advocates push back against restrictive out of state greenhouse gas regulations that impact Midwest ethanol markets. Looking Ahead Future weekly editions will rotate to feature deep dives into regional pest management, state specific policy impacts, and early harvest preparations. #CornBeltAg #MidwestFarming #CropProgress26

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Tuesday Noon Market Report: Mid Day Markets, November 10, 2026 This Morning's Top Story A pivotal monthly USDA WASDE report release and active late-season harvest momentum are dictating cross asset movement today, November 10, 2026. This morning’s November WASDE delivered a mixed supply update to the ag complex, trimming national corn production down to 15.893 billion bushels as yield was docked to 179.6 bushels per acre (down from 180.5 bu/acre in October). Conversely, USDA raised soybean yield to 53.3 bu/acre (up from 53.1 bu/acre), pushing national production up to 4.574 billion bushels. In agricultural derivatives, row-crop screen action is reflecting these fresh balance sheet adjustments alongside yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress update. The progress report showed national corn harvest reaching 81% complete, while national soybean harvest hit 92% complete, signaling that fall combine activity is rapidly entering its final stretch across primary Corn Belt hubs. Meanwhile, physical country cash livestock markets are establishing a firm mid-month baseline following last week's cash trade. Negotiated live cash cattle bids are holding steady near $225.00 to $226.00/cwt live, while northern dressed trade rests near $350.00 to $355.00/cwt. CME Live Cattle (/LE) are trading higher with ask prices near $218.925/cwt, while Feeder Cattle (/GF) show ask prices near $328.825/cwt. Market News (Performance Review & Rebalancing) Capital allocation reflects WASDE balance sheet adjustments, late harvest progress tracking, and cross asset position adjustments. WASDE Brings Mixed Production Updates: The November WASDE trimmed U.S. corn production to 15.893 billion bushels on lower 179.6 bu/acre yields, while lifting soybean production to 4.574 billion bushels on a 53.3 bu/acre yield estimate. U.S. wheat ending stocks edged up to 743 million bushels. Livestock Futures Post Moderate Bounce: CME Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures are trading with constructive green lifts mid day. Live Cattle (/LE) contracts show ask prices near $218.925/cwt (+0.925). Feeder Cattle (/GF) are holding ask prices near $328.825/cwt (+0.825). Grains Firm Following Yield Adjustments: December Corn (/ZC) is trading with ask prices near $4.51/bu ($451.00) following the corn yield cut. January Soybeans (/ZS) show ask prices near $12.2675/bu ($1226.75), supported by Soybean Oil (/ZL) at 62.64 cents while Soybean Meal (/ZM) sits at $325.10/ton. December Chicago Wheat (/ZW) shows ask prices near $5.9425/bu ($594.25), KC HRW Wheat (/KE) trades near $6.3675/bu ($636.75), and Hard Red Spring Wheat (/MWE) trades near $6.2725/bu ($627.25). Physical Cash Cattle Bids Solid: Country fed cattle cash trade remains supported early in the week as packers compile showlists following recent negotiated trade. Hog Futures Soften: Lean Hogs (/HE) are trading with ask prices near 55.90 cents as traders align paper margins against seasonal pork cutout trends. Contract Snapshots Corn (/ZC): Support 442 - Resistance 462 - Status: Constructive; Dec contract ask trading near $4.51/bu ($451.00) as WASDE trims national yield. Soybeans (/ZS): Support 1205 - Resistance 1245 - Status: Constructive; Jan contract ask trading near $12.2675/bu ($1226.75) with national harvest at 92%. Wheat (/ZW): Support 580 - Resistance 612 - Status: Neutral; Dec Chicago wheat ask trading near $5.9425/bu ($594.25). KC HRW Wheat (/KE): Support 622 - Resistance 652 - Status: Neutral; KC HRW wheat ask trading near $6.3675/bu ($636.75). Hard Red Spring Wheat (/MWE): Support 612 - Resistance 642 - Status: Neutral; Spring wheat ask trading near $6.2725/bu ($627.25). Live Cattle (/LE): Support 215.00 - Resistance 222.50 - Status: Green Bounce; Active contract ask trading near $218.925/cwt. Feeder Cattle (/GF): Support 322.00 - Resistance 335.00 - Status: Green Bounce; Active feeders ask trading near $328.825/cwt. Lean Hogs (/HE): Support 54.00 - Resistance 58.50 - Status: Soft; Active lean hogs ask trading near 55.90 cents. Chart of the Day: Live Cattle (/LE) Technical Setup Action: Protect Margins / Respect $217 Technical Support. Why: Live Cattle are mounting a mid day bounce with ask prices near $218.925/cwt as paper markets stabilize following recent country cash resets and packer processing adjustments. Tactical Note: The contract is testing technical resistance near $220.00 to $221.00. Utilize electronic rallies to maintain trailing downside risk protection across late autumn marketings. Market Pulse & Strategy Institutional trading desks are actively recalibrating grain algorithms following this morning's WASDE yield adjustments. With national corn harvest at 81% and soybeans at 92%, seasonal combine pressure is fading, shifting trader focus to domestic crush/feed usage and export pace. Pro Takeaway: With corn yield trimmed to 179.6 bu/acre and harvest nearly wrapped, local elevator basis spreads will begin to firm up into mid November. Keep protective trailing stops active under long grain positions, and use electronic cattle bounces to lock in downside risk floors. Notes WASDE Adjustments vs. Feedyard Leverage: The USDA's cut to corn production (down 141 million bu) confirms late-summer weather stress. In livestock, tight feeder calf availability and lower beef production forecasts continue to underpin long term feedyard leverage despite recent paper pullbacks. The Rest of the Week Wednesday, November 11: EIA Ethanol and Biofuel Production data. Thursday, November 12: Weekly USDA Export Sales report. Check for international export bookings across row crops. Friday, November 13: Weekly country cash cattle market summaries. #LiveCattleFutures #FeederCattle #CornFutures #WASDE #SoybeanHarvest #MerchantCreek Futures trading involves significant risk. Information provided is for educational purposes only.

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Soybean - Regional Processor Bids & Crush Report Regional Processor Bids & Current Market Data The grain complex is navigating a dynamic session as commercial desks react directly to the 11:00 AM CST release of the USDA’s November WASDE report alongside yesterday's Crop Progress update. CBOT January soybean futures (/ZS[F27]) are trading at $12.26 ¾ per bushel, rallying back after initial post-report adjustments. Physical interior demand across Western Corn Belt processors remains well supported; while active harvest deliveries reaching 92% completion nationwide have replenished nearterm pipelines, processors are maintaining firm cash basis levels to incentivize direct plant deliveries through late autumn. AGP David City NE Oct/Nov $11.88 -38 cents AGP Eagle Grove IA Oct/Nov $11.83 -43 cents Shell Rock Soy IA Oct/Nov $11.96 -30 cents AGP Manning IA Oct/Nov $11.78 -48 cents AGP St. Joseph MO Oct/Nov $12.18 -8 cents AGP Dawson MN Oct/Nov $11.58 -68 cents AGP Aberdeen SD Oct/Nov $11.83 -43 cents CBOT Soybean Futures (January /ZS[F27]): $12.26 ¾ /bu (Trading up near $12.27/bu following the 11:00 AM WASDE release) Soybean Oil (December /ZL[Z26]): 62.82 ¢/lb (Consolidating near 62.8 cents amid broader bio-feedstock updates) Soybean Meal (December /ZM[Z26]): $327.60 /ton (Holding steady to firm, backed by consistent domestic feed intake) National Cash Index: ~$11.66 /bu (Reflecting solid interior plant spot baseline bids) SPECIAL ADD-ON: 11:00 AM CST November WASDE Update The USDA released its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports today at 11:00 AM CST, introducing fresh baseline fundamentals to the market: Yield & Production Adjustments: The USDA updated U.S. soybean production expectations as late harvest yield reports were finalized, adjusting key yield parameters relative to October trade expectations. Balance Sheet Impact: Domestic ending stock projections were refined to reflect the combination of updated final production figures, ongoing domestic crush processing pace, and international export commitments. Market Reaction: Futures digested the numbers with immediate two way volatility at the 11:00 AM CST release window, with January futures finding firm technical support near $12.26/bu as commercial buyers absorbed the new supply-demand baseline. Macro Market Analysis The macroeconomic landscape is balancing the new USDA balance sheet numbers against broader commodity moves, with WTI crude futures (/CL[Z26]) holding near $86.69/bbl and gold (/GC[Z26]) trading around $4,029.90/oz. Commercial desks are evaluating post-WASDE trade signals alongside final North American crop movement and ongoing fieldwork across South America. The South American & Export Channel: Export channels remain active, with international buyers monitoring post WASDE price levels to cover spot U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest positions. In South America, Brazilian soybean planting is advancing smoothly under favorable early soil moisture, maintaining long-term global supply expectations. NOPA Processing & Volume Check Domestic soybean processors continue to provide a structural anchor for the soy complex, with processing margins supported by steady oil-share and meal contributions: Crush Operations: Member processing facilities continue to run active daily schedules as late autumn crop receipts keep plant pipelines full heading into winter operational periods. Soybean Oil Stocks: Interior soybean oil inventories remain well managed, supported by ongoing feedstock utilization across the domestic renewable diesel and bio-energy sectors. Logistics & Biofuels Processing & Feedstock Flow: Biofuel processors and domestic crushers keep spot bids competitive to protect operational inventories. Freight movement across regional rail networks, trucking lines, and Mississippi River barge channels is clearing the final phase of harvest grain logistics smoothly. Weekly Crop Progress & Livestock Status Yesterday afternoon's USDA Crop Progress report (released Monday, November 9) confirmed that the 2026 U.S. soybean harvest has reached its final home stretch: Soybean Harvest Reaches 92% Complete: USDA reported national soybean harvest advanced to 92% complete running 1 percentage point ahead of the 91% five-year average pace. Iowa reached 93% complete, while Nebraska reached 90%. Corn Harvest Reaches 81%: The national corn harvest advanced to 81% complete (vs 86% five-year average), maintaining steady elevator space turnover across the Corn Belt. Screwworm Vigilance: Strict biosecurity protocols remain active along Southern transport routes, while domestic livestock feedlot consumption of soybean meal holds steady. Looking Ahead & Action Plan Producer Action Plan: Use post-WASDE market action around January futures near $12.26/bu to evaluate remaining unpriced bushels. With national soybean harvest now 92% complete, focus shifts toward post-harvest basis improvement and storage strategy as combine pressure subsides. Speculator Focus: Monitor how the market settles following today's 11:00 AM WASDE release. Watch the January $12.15 support and $12.35 resistance windows alongside product share adjustments inside crush margins. Harvest Wrap Up Watch: As harvest completion approaches 95% nationwide, market focus transitions entirely from crop progress to final WASDE balance sheet absorption, commercial storage flows, and South American weather developments. #Soybeans #SoyCrush #AgMarketing

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3d ago on

Dave's Ranked Top Picks and Watchlist: Weekly Report Precious metals and energy headlines dominated trade leading into the weekend ending Friday, November 6, 2026. Natural Gas (/NG) broke out cleanly above $3.00 to settle at 3.003, claiming the #1 spot in our rankings. Gold (/GC) staged a sharp rebound off recent lows to settle at 4,079.5, jumping into the #2 spot. Meanwhile, Micro Nasdaq Futures (/MNQ) pulled back to test core support near 27,107.25, Crude Oil (/CL) eased to 90.34, and Soybeans (/ZS) settled at 1,194.50. Dave's Futures Power Rankings The Top 5 Futures Markets This Week #1 Natural Gas (/NG) The $3.00 Breakout & Early Winter Heating Demand #2 Gold (/GC) The Safe Haven Rebound & Technical Baseline Defense #3 Micro Nasdaq Futures (/MNQ) The Tech Retrenchment & Support Defense #4 Crude Oil (/CL) The Range Support Test & Physical Market Realignment #5 Soybeans (/ZS) The Export Demand Baseline & Ag Complex Support Quick Take: Natural Gas surges past $3.00 on early winter heating momentum, Gold reestablishes a strong structural bid, and tech index futures work to stabilize at key technical support levels. My Weekly Top Picks #1 Natural Gas (/NG) Last Week: #1 on the list last week. Monday Open: 2.883, Friday Close: 3.003 (Up +0.120 / +4.16%) What Changed: Retained its #1 ranking after powering past major psychological resistance to settle cleanly at 3.003. Forecasts for early season cold snaps across key consuming regions sparked strong speculative buying. Current: Natural gas is in full trend expansion mode above $3.00. Holding above 2.950 keeps short term momentum firmly with the bulls. Last Price: 3.003Support: 2.880 Resistance: 3.180 Monday Potential: Bullish Bias Weekly Potential: Trend Expansion / Upper Target Test #2 Gold (/GC) Last Week: #5 on the list last week. Monday Open: 3,884.9, Friday Close: 4,079.5 (Up +194.60 pts / +5.01%) What Changed: Jumped 3 spots to claim #2 after staging an impressive 194+ point weekly rally to settle back above 4,079.0. Central bank accumulation and safe haven allocations stepped in forcefully. Current: Gold has reclaimed its primary bullish baseline. Institutional buying remains active, turning recent pullbacks into clear value accumulation zones. Last Price: 4,079.5Support: 3,980.00 Resistance: 4,150.00 Monday Potential: Bullish Bias Weekly Potential: Multi Week Target Expansion #3 Micro Nasdaq Futures (/MNQ) Last Week: #4 on the list last week. Monday Open: 28,545.75, Friday Close: 27,107.25 (Down -1,438.50 pts / -5.04%) What Changed: Moved to #3 after tech index futures pulled back under macro liquidity adjustments, settling at 27,107.25 while testing critical intermediate support. Current: /MNQ is searching for a stabilization floor near 27,000. Institutional buyers are watching key technical support to position for year end trade flows. Last Price: 27,107.25Support: 26,800.00 Resistance: 27,850.00 Monday Potential: Support Defense / Neutral Weekly Potential: Range Bound / Floor Test #4 Crude Oil (/CL) Last Week: #3 on the list last week. Monday Open: 102.95, Friday Close: 90.34 (Down -$12.61 / -12.25%) What Changed: Slipped 1 spot to #4 as WTI futures eased back off recent highs to settle near 90.34 into the weekend. Current: Crude oil is testing the lower end of its intermediate channel near $90.00. Underlying physical supply tightness remains an active macro floor. Last Price: 90.34Support: 88.50 Resistance: 94.00 Monday Potential: Neutral / Support Defense Weekly Potential: Volatile Floor Test / Range Rebound #5 Soybeans (/ZS) Last Week: #2 on the list last week. Monday Open: 1,234.00, Friday Close: 1,194.50 (Down -39.50 cents / -3.20%) What Changed: Slipped to #5. January beans (/ZSF27) settled at 1,194.50 ($11.94 1/2) as active country selling met steady commercial crush bids. Current: Soybeans are testing psychological support near $11.90. Domestic processor demand continues to offer fundamental backing as harvest supply enters logistics channels. Last Price: 1,194.50Support: 1,175.00 Resistance: 1,225.00 Monday Potential: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Potential: Range Bound / Demand Baseline Test #6 Corn (/ZC) Last Week: #6 on the list last week. Monday Open: 447.50, Friday Close: 442.25 (Down -5.25 pts / -1.17%) What Changed: Unchanged at #6. Active December corn (/ZCZ26) settled at 442.25 ($4.42 1/4) as post harvest country hedge pressure wound down. Last Price: 442.25Support: 432.00 Resistance: 455.00 Monday Potential: Neutral / Commercial Floor Test Weekly Potential: Range Bound / Baseline Consolidation #7 Live Cattle (/LE) Last Week: #8 on the list last week. Monday Open: 220.775, Friday Close: 214.175 (Down -6.60 pts / -2.99%) What Changed: Advanced to #7. December live cattle settled at 214.175 as packers managed slaughter pace against cash feedlot asking prices. Last Price: 214.175Support: 210.00 Resistance: 220.00 Monday Potential: Neutral Bias Weekly Potential: Range Bound Consolidation #8 Feeder Cattle (/GF) Last Week: #7 on the list last week. Monday Open: 337.475, Friday Close: 322.425 (Down -15.05 pts / -4.46%) What Changed: Slipped to #8. November feeders settled at 322.425, adjusting to cash trade and feed input shifts. Last Price: 322.425Support: 316.00 Resistance: 330.00 Monday Potential: Neutral / Floor Test Weekly Potential: Volatile Floor Testing #9 Chicago Wheat (/ZW) Last Week: #10 on the list last week. Monday Open: 603.25, Friday Close: 590.50 (Down -12.75 pts / -2.11%) What Changed: Advanced 1 spot to #9. Active December SRW wheat settled at 590.50 ($5.90 1/2), holding key chart support. Last Price: 590.50Support: 578.00 Resistance: 608.00 Monday Potential: Floor Test Weekly Potential: Range Bound #10 KC Wheat (/KE) Last Week: #11 on the list last week. Monday Open: 643.50, Friday Close: 631.75 (Down -11.75 pts / -1.83%) What Changed: Moved up to #10. December HRW wheat settled at 631.75 ($6.31 3/4) as winter wheat seeding wrapped up across the Southern Plains. Last Price: 631.75Support: 618.00 Resistance: 648.00 Monday Potential: Sympathy Pressure Weekly Potential: Range Bound Consolidation #11 Soybean Meal (/ZM) Last Week: #9 on the list last week. Monday Open: 324.7, Friday Close: 318.8 (Down -$5.90 / -1.82%) What Changed: Slipped to #11. December meal consolidated to 318.8, keeping domestic processor crush throughput steady. Last Price: 318.8Support: 310.00 Resistance: 330.00 Monday Potential: Neutral / Consolidating Weekly Potential: Consolidating #12 Lean Hogs (/HE) Last Week: #12 on the list last week. Monday Open: 59.000, Friday Close: 53.375 (Down -5.625 pts / -9.53%)What Changed: Unchanged at #12. December hogs settled at 53.375 as seasonal cutout pressure remained active. Last Price: 53.375Support: 51.00 Resistance: 56.50 Monday Potential: Flat / Consolidating Weekly Potential: Range Bound #13 Minneapolis Spring Wheat (/MWE) Last Week: #13 on the list last week. Monday Open: 624.25, Friday Close: 615.25 (Settled at 6.1525 / $6.15 1/4) What Changed: Stationary at #13. Spring wheat futures settled at 615.25 in quiet post-harvest trade. Last Price: 615.25Support: 602.00 Resistance: 630.00 Monday Potential: Neutral Bias Weekly Potential: Range Bound Consolidation Monday Open Focus List Natural Gas $3.00 Floor Hold: Watching if /NG maintains its breakout momentum above 3.000 into the Sunday open. Gold Baseline Continuation: Checking if /GC builds on Friday's surge past 4,075.0. MNQ Support Test: Verifying whether equity index buyers defend 27,000 to stabilize pricing. Crude Oil $90.00 Support: Tracking order flow near key intermediate channel support. CHART OF THE WEEK Natural Gas Futures (NG) Last Week Performance: Open 2.883, Close 3.003 (Up +0.120 / +4.16%) Notes: Natural Gas takes Chart of the Week honors after powering past key psychological resistance to close at 3.003. Forecasts for early winter heating demand combined with tightening storage injections to fuel aggressive spec buying. What To Watch: We are watching whether /NG can establish 2.950 as a fresh structural floor on any early week pullbacks. A clean hold above this level keeps upside targets open toward 3.180+. Weekly Bias: Strong Bullish Futures trading involves significant risk. Information provided is for educational purposes only. #FuturesTrading #MarketOutlook #Commodities

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4d ago on

Commodities & Market Intelligence, Funds, & Strategy Note on Upcoming Market Transparency Rule Changes: Starting in December 2026, the CFTC will transition the Commitments of Traders (COT) report from its historical weekly schedule to a semi weekly publication (releasing Wednesdays and Fridays at 3:30 PM ET with an improved two day reporting lag). This shift is expected to enhance intra-week market transparency and potentially dampen Friday "COT release volatility" as managed money and algorithmic traders digest institutional positioning shifts twice as frequently. Weekly Briefing & Managed Money Report Global macro markets closed out Friday following a high volatility week dominated by post WASDE yield adjustments, key energy transit friction, and persistent Federal Open Market Committee rate guidance. Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance continues to anchor Treasury yields near key highs and maintain dollar strength. Energy markets pulled back into the weekend, with front month WTI crude futures (/CLZ26) settling down at $90.34/bbl as traders balanced Middle East transit risks against broader macroeconomic demand signals. Across the agricultural heartland, fall harvest progress is in its final stretch under clear skies, with combines validating final yield metrics across the Midwest. Commitments of Traders – Managed Money Overview Report Date: November 6, 2026 | Data Period: Positions as of November 3, 2026 The Smart Money vs. Dumb Money Metric Commercials (The Insiders): Commercial energy consumers are aggressively hedging forward fuel exposure as physical crude maintains an elevated baseline. In agriculture, major milling houses and export originators actively stepped in to defense buy recent harvest selloffs, using lower price levels to cover physical needs against tight global free stocks. Managed Money (Trend Followers): Fund managers expanded net long exposure across energy while adjusting grain allocations following recent USDA yield revisions and strong NOPA crush data. Non Reportable (Retail): Small retail traders remain heavily reactive to geopolitical energy headlines while under allocated to physical hard assets in the face of sticky long term inflation. Precious Metals & Financials (The Warsh Rate Hike Regime) Gold (/GC) Managed Money Positioning: 105,200 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +1,400 | Front Settlement (Dec /GCZ26): $4,079.50/oz | Spot: ~$4,075.00 Market Activity: Wk +5.0%, V/OI Ratio 0.56, Rebounding Strategic Insight: Gold (/GC) rebounded sharply on Friday to settle at $4,079.50/oz as dip buyers stepped in following recent pullbacks, balancing safe haven demand against a hawkish Fed rate trajectory. While higher interest rates provide a short term headwind, persistent geopolitical energy risks keep underlying institutional safe haven demand firmly intact. Silver (/SI) Managed Money Positioning: 8,200 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +300 | Front Settlement (Dec /SILZ26): $51.960/oz | Spot: ~$51.90 Market Activity: Wk +5.7%, V/OI Ratio 0.72, Rebounding Strategic Insight: Silver (/SILZ26) surged to settle at $51.960/oz, staging a strong recovery in tandem with gold as industrial demand metrics and safe haven flows countered elevated borrowing costs under the Fed's renewed tightening cycle. 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note Managed Money Positioning: -1,410,000 (Net Short) | Δ Change (Leveraged Funds): +50,000 | Yield: 4.62% Strategic Insight (The 4.62% Re-acceleration): Treasury yields rose across the curve after Chairman Warsh confirmed that dot plot projections favor another rate hike before year end to bring inflation back toward 2%. Energy & Natural Gas (The Century Oil Retracement) WTI Crude Oil (/CL) Managed Money Positioning: 172,800 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +8,600 | Support: $88.00 | Resistance: $98.00 | Front Settlement (Dec /CLZ26): $90.34/bbl | Nearby Spot: $91.00/bbl Market Activity: Wk -12.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.88, Volatile Strategic Insight (Triple-Digit Spot Pressure): December WTI crude (/CLZ26) pulled back sharply to settle Friday at $90.34/bbl on heavy volume (257,537 contracts). Prices eased off previous triple-digit highs as engineering teams managed temporary export bypasses for Saudi crude flows while active escort bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict prompt physical availability. Natural Gas (/NG) Managed Money Positioning: +21,100 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +700 | Support: $2.80 | Resistance: $3.45 | Front Settlement (Dec /NGZ26): $3.003/MMBtu Market Activity: Wk +4.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.50, Firm Strategic Insight: Natural gas (/NGZ26) pushed back above $3.00 to settle at $3.003/MMBtu as early heating demand and robust LNG export flows continue to provide strong fundamental support. Grains & Livestock (Harvest Acceleration & NOPA Crush) Corn (/ZC) Managed Money Positioning: +14,000 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +6,000 | Harvest: 88% Complete | Front Settlement (Dec /ZCZ26): $4.42 1/4/bu ($4.4225) Market Activity: Wk -1.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.60, Softening Strategic Insight (Harvest Pressure): December Corn (/ZCZ26) settled Friday down at $4.42 1/4/bu. Expanding harvest deliveries across the Western Corn Belt generated seasonal commercial hedge pressure, while end users continue to defend basis levels to secure remaining physical supplies. Soybeans (/ZS) Managed Money Positioning: 45,200 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +3,100 | Harvest: 92% Complete | Front Settlement (Jan /ZSF27): $11.94 1/2/bu ($11.9450) Market Activity: Wk -3.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.52, Softening Strategic Insight (NOPA Crush Tailwinds): January Soybeans (/ZSF27) slipped to settle at $11.94 1/2/bu. Despite short-term price pressure, soybeans continue to draw fundamental support from robust domestic crush utilization and steady export interest as combining nears completion across the central Midwest. Soybean Oil (/ZL) & Soybean Meal (/ZM) Front Settlement: /ZLZ26 at 62.31 cents/lb | /ZMZ26 at $318.80/ton Strategic Insight: Soybean oil (/ZLZ26) settled at 62.31 cents/lb while soybean meal (/ZMZ26) settled at $318.80/ton, reflecting steady crush margins and active biofuel feedstock demand. Wheat Complex (/ZW, /KE, /MWE) Managed Money Positioning: +92,800 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +1,600 | Front Settlement: Chicago (/ZWZ26) $5.90 1/2/bu | KC HRW (/KEZ26) $6.31 3/4/bu | MWE Spring (/MWEZ26) $6.15 1/4/bu Market Activity: Wk -2.1%, V/OI Ratio 0.66, Softening Strategic Insight: December Chicago Wheat (/ZWZ26) settled at $5.90 1/2, KC Wheat (/KEZ26) at $6.31 3/4, and Minneapolis Wheat (/MWEZ26) at $6.15 1/4. Wheat was weighed down by corn market spillover despite ongoing Black Sea export lane friction and tight global free stocks. Live Cattle (/LE) Managed Money Positioning: 110,200 (Net Long) | Δ Change: +4,321 | Cash Bids: ~$222–$226/cwt | Front Settlement (Dec /LEZ26): $214.175/cwt Market Activity: Wk -3.0%, V/OI Ratio 0.70, Corrective Strategic Insight (Feedlot Margin Realignment): December Live Cattle (/LEZ26) settled Friday at $214.175/cwt. Softening corn futures provided immediate feed cost relief to feeders, while packer bids in the northern country defended baseline cash trade. Feeder Cattle (/GF) Market Activity: Wk -4.5%, V/OI Ratio 0.75, Pressure Strategic Insight: November Feeder Cattle (/GFX26) settled at $322.425/cwt as buyers recalibrate placement models against broader livestock market pullbacks. Lean Hogs (/HE) Market Activity: Wk -9.5%, V/OI Ratio 0.38, Softening Strategic Insight: December Lean Hogs (/HEZ26) settled Friday down at $53.375/cwt, facing seasonal pressure while domestic pork disappearance remains stable. Technical Cheat Sheet: Key Execution Levels & Market Positioning Brent Crude OilPivot: $102.50. Resistance 1: $107.00. Support 1: $98.00. Sentiment: Constructive. WTI Oil (/CL)Wk -12.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.88, Volatile. Dec Contract Settles at $90.34. IVR 95%. Forward curve eases. Gold (/GC)Pivot: $4,050. Resistance 1: $4,120. Support 1: $3,980. Sentiment: Bullish Rebound. Wk +5.0%, V/OI Ratio 0.56. Dec Futures Settle at $4,079.50. Fed policy shifts and Treasury buybacks preserve long term floor. Silver (/SI)Wk +5.7%, V/OI Ratio 0.72, Rebounding. Dec /SILZ26 at $51.960. Industrial demand and safe haven flows drive sharp rally. Soybeans (/ZS)Pivot: $12.20. Resistance 1: $12.50. Support 1: $11.80. Sentiment: Neutral. Wk -3.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.52. Jan /ZSF27 closes at $11.94 1/2. Corn (/ZC)Wk -1.2%, V/OI Ratio 0.60, Softening. Dec Contract Settles at $4.42 1/4. IVR 84%. Wheat (SRW /ZW)Wk -2.1%, V/OI Ratio 0.66, Softening. Dec Contract Settles at $5.90 1/2. Tight protein availability balances corn spillover. Live Cattle (/LE)Pivot: $216.00. Resistance 1: $222.00. Support 1: $210.00. Sentiment: Mixed. Wk -3.0%, V/OI Ratio 0.70. Dec /LEZ26 at $214.175. Feeder Cattle (/GF)Wk -4.5%, V/OI Ratio 0.75, Pressure. Nov /GFX26 at $322.425. Placement adjustments weigh on feeder contracts. Lean Hogs (/HE)Wk -9.5%, V/OI Ratio 0.38, Softening. Dec /HEZ26 at $53.375. Seasonal supply pressure impacts contracts. Weekly Performance Summary (As of November 6 Close) Corn (Dec '26 /ZCZ26): $4.42 1/4, -1.2%. Seasonal harvest hedge pressure weighs on futures. Soybeans (Jan '27 /ZSF27): $11.94 1/2, -3.2%. Supported long term by domestic crush and export demand. Live Cattle (Dec '26 /LEZ26): $214.175, -3.0%. Eases following recent contract highs. Crude Oil (Dec '26 /CLZ26): $90.34, -12.2%. Eases off previous triple-digit highs while physical spot holds baseline. Gold (Dec '26 /GCZ26): $4,079.50, +5.0%. Strong Friday rally reclaims $4,075 level. Silver (Dec '26 /SILZ26): $51.960, +5.7%. Industrial demand and safe haven buying spark sharp gain. Wheat (Dec '26 /ZWZ26): $5.90 1/2, -2.1%. Corn market weakness drags winter wheat contracts lower. The Week Ahead: Critical Drivers & Intelligence Calendar Mon, Nov 09: USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report (4:00 PM ET) & Final Harvest Pace Update. Tue, Nov 10: USDA Monthly Crop Production & WASDE Report (12:00 PM ET). Wed, Nov 11: Veterans Day Holiday Schedule (Bond Markets Closed; CME/NYMEX Open). Thu, Nov 12: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Inventory Report (Delayed due to holiday). Fri, Nov 13: U.S. Weekly Export Sales & Initial Jobless Claims. Pro Tip: The Grain/Energy Pivot Align with Structural Cash Basis: The convergence of elevated crude oil and the Fed's new rate hiking regime reinforces the need for physical commodity allocation. The Smart Money is maintaining long exposure in Wheat and Corn while utilizing energy market strength to fund physical hedges. Do not allow short term harvest hedge volatility to mask tight underlying domestic cash basis. Futures trading involves significant risk. Information provided is for educational purposes only. #MacroTrading #FuturesTrading #Commodities