LLYEli LillyNeutralEli Lilly

1/8/2026 on

Ventyx $VTYX acquired by Lilly $LLY for $14/share or $1.2B valuation. IPO'd in 2021 at $16/share, around $800M market cap. So acquisition is like ~15% below the IPO price but ~50% above the IPO valuation Great pivot from TYK2 lead program at time of IPO to the inflammasome NLRP3 lead program today... quite a rollercoaster in the public markets... IPO'd at $16, went to $46 in 2023, cratered to below $1 by spring 2025... now acquired for $14... Entry point matters. IPO buyers got most of their money back... a win, considering 90% underwater a year ago... but if you bought in April 2025, you'd have made like a 2000%+ IRR...

NeutralLLYEli LillyEli LillyAAPLAppleAppleABBVAbbVieAbbVieJNJJohnson & JohnsonJohnson & JohnsonMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftNVDANVIDIANVIDIASPYS&P 500S&P 500

11/5/2025 on

Cool concentration chart below: $NVDA, $MSFT, $AAPL are 22% of the S&P500. Interestingly, I think the BioPharma industry is similarly (or more) concentrated as a share of global market capitalization. Total global mkt cap of the sector is like ~$6T... $LLY, $JNJ, $ABBV represent about 26% of that value.

BearishLLYEli LillyEli LillyMRKMerckMerckPFEPfizerPfizer

10/2/2025 on

"Let's make a deal..." and Big Pharma is up ~5% today (NYSE:DRG). Lilly up like $60B. Merck $18B. Pfizer $13B. I'd guess up $120B+ in market cap for the Top 10 alone. Staggering scale. The industry was oversold (historically low P/E), but call me skeptical... waiting for the next shoe to drop. The "deal" (or "deals") being discussed appear to drop prices here in the US, but don't solve the real problem: the US has subsidized global R&D because the EU/UK/JPN don't pay enough for new medicines. Those countries need to step up to make innovation model work.

NeutralLLYEli LillyEli LillyMETAMRKMerckMerckMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoft

7/31/2025 on

Microsoft and Meta crushed earnings... adding ~$500B+ in market cap in pre-market trading. They've added more value in a single morning than the value of every Big Pharma except LLY. Or like adding 5 BMS's... 2.5 Merck's... or more than every publicly-traded biotech that has IPO'd over the last decade combined... Big Tech has crazy scale.

NeutralLLYEli LillyEli LillyMETAMRKMerckMerckMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoft

7/31/2025 on

Microsoft and Meta crushed earnings... adding ~$500B+ in market cap in pre-market trading. They've added more value in a single morning than the value of every Big Pharma except LLY. Or like adding 5 BMS's... 2.5 Merck's... or more every publicly-traded biotech that has IPO'd over the last decade combined... Big Tech has crazy scale.