GOOGLAlphabetBearishAlphabetIWMRussell 2000NeutralRussell 2000METANeutralMSFTMicrosoftNeutralMicrosoftMUMicron TechnologyNeutralMicron TechnologyNVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIAQQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaqSNDKSandisk CorporationNeutralSandisk CorporationSPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500VSTVistraNeutralVistraMRVLMarvellBearishMarvelltitle onlyLabel based on the headline only

1w ago on

Tech's Biggest Winners Just Became The Market's Biggest Trap

Tech's biggest winners just became the market's biggest trap

NeutralGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetAMZNAmazonAmazonCRWVCoreWeave, Inc.CoreWeave, Inc.METAMSFTMicrosoftMicrosoftNVDANVIDIANVIDIAORCLOracleOracle

1w ago on

The AI trade is getting very weird. Investors are now buying record amounts of downside protection on CoreWeave, while the cost of insuring the debt of $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and $ORCL has risen to the highest level since 2021. But this is the part that really caught my attention: Wall Street is now creating derivatives on COMPUTE. A data-center operator can hedge against the future rental price of Nvidia GPUs falling. Nvidia B300 compute currently rents for about $7.56/hour. A neocloud could buy protection that pays out if that rate drops to $4. Think about how far this has gone. ➡️We started with AI stocks. ➡️Then came massive data-center debt. ➡️Then GPU-backed financing. Now people are literally hedging the future price of compute. I’m still very bullish on AI long term, but this is exactly the sort of thing I watch closely. When an investment boom gets big enough that Wall Street starts building insurance products around the underlying infrastructure itself, you know the amounts of money involved have become enormous. AI isn’t just a stock-market theme anymore. It’s becoming its own financial market.

NeutralGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetGOOGAlphabetAlphabet

2w ago on

$GOOGL just reported 25% revenue growth and 103% growth in Google Cloud. Yet the stock sold off roughly 10% after earnings. At first glance, that makes little sense. However, the earnings call revealed some serious concerns. Here’s what stood out to me: 👉Search is slowing. Revenue growth decelerated to 12%, despite Google reporting its strongest search -query growth in five years. 👉AI monetization is becoming a problem. Management acknowledged that AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search. That’s a big deal when your core cash machine is undergoing a massive transformation. 👉CapEx remains enormous. Alphabet spent $51.4 billion in Q3 alone, expects $195-205 billion in 2026, and confirmed another significant increase in 2027. 👉Free cash flow turned negative again. Q3 FCF was -$9.1 billion. The EU fine and TPU inventory build played a role, but the underlying capital intensity remains extraordinary. 👉Cloud margins face pressure. Despite phenomenal growth, management warned that using third-party compute capacity will hurt near-term profitability. Now, I don’t think this was a bad quarter. Far from it. Google Cloud is firing on all cylinders, and AI demand is clearly not the problem. However, the market is starting to question how much of that growth will eventually translate into cash for shareholders. And I think that’s a perfectly reasonable concern. We’re witnessing one of the largest infrastructure investment cycles in history. The demand is real, but somebody has to pay for it. Which is exactly why I continue to favor businesses that get paid to enable this buildout without having to finance the entire thing themselves. The AI boom is far from over. The debate is increasingly about who will actually capture the returns.

GOOGLAlphabetNeutralAlphabet

2w ago on

$GOOGL's CapEx growth rate is accelerating as well. 2Q26 CapEx +100% Y/Y 3Q26 CapEx +114% Y/Y https://t.co/fnx9RIQZnk

GOOGLAlphabetNeutralAlphabet

3w ago on

Google Earth has a Flight Simulator. Pretty cool (and a terrific time waster) https://t.co/DiqcfKcCin