WAF crudes, you're looking deliciously cheap now. WTI, you are far too expensive. #oott https://t.co/byExzI4zgC

Markets deciding whether we are going to see a peaceful end to 2026... Ironically I remember how bearish it was going into 2026 where the markets were talking about $50/bbl Brent levels, with only China's crude stockpiling supporting the oil price. #oott https://t.co/4HmOQCoUzQ

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet. Alas, oil is not just another name if it is diesel, gasoline or crude oil. https://t.co/TabV7MLHTO

Why is oil price not simply Brent? Not so long ago, people used the word 'oil prices' loosely to describe everything from crude oil to diesel to gasoline. That wasn't necessarily wrong either since the prices tracked each other closely. Slowly, refining capacity in the world declined. Some mega refineries got built in the Middle East, China and Africa, while the smaller, older outfits were rationalized, many in the Atlantic Basin. Then came the US-Iran war. Middle Eastern refineries suffered strikes and could not resume normal operations quickly. Asian refineries suffered loss of feedstock due to the Strait of Hormuz closure but eventually diversified their crude slate to run up to max. However refineries in China were curtailed in production by government-mandated product export quotas. The crisis further compounded when Ukraine started attacking Russian refineries relentless with drones. All these resulted in refining capacity shortages. When refining is constrained, it results in a blowout of product cracks, which is the spread between product and crude. Lo and behold, 'oil prices' cannot be used interchangeably anymore and we have to differentiate between crude oil (Brent) and diesel or mogas prices. So if we see flatprice coming off, we are not necessarily going to see diesel or gasoline prices coming off in the same way in the current environment we are in. Refining capacity is expected to remain constrained until either Russia, China and/or the Middle Eastern refineries start running again at higher throughput, or demand destruction happens in a large scale. And don't forget that exorbitant freight rate plaguing the markets which increases the price of crude delivered into the refineries. The product prices will need to factor in the entire cost of input, not just flatprice! Until then, be more explicit with which 'oil price' you are referring to. We are far from the good old days. #oott

Back on @AsharqBusiness to share my views on the oil markets. Tensions come off, oil prices fall.... right? Not necessarily because oil is not just crude. The freight to deliver crude into the refining hubs are astronomical. The refining kit itself remains constrained with Russia and some Middle Eastern refineries out. That means refined oil product prices remain elevated. #oott https://t.co/28Msrre86e