Quinn Thompson

New high in QQQ/IWM. Must be main street's turn again... There's a reason the odds of a Dem sweep are going vertical. https://t.co/N7yg5N14TH

From April 👇 Now futures are pricing in almost a 5% FFR by end of 2027. https://t.co/4uckVbkoUr

The year is 2028. The 30 year yield is pushing 9%, there hasn't been a home sale in 6 months. Oil is $300, the US has an export ban on all oil products. The Nasdaq is 60,000 and VIX grinding along sub-10. Equity investors cite the coming Trump taco as the reason for calm. 😂🤣

The year is 2028. The 30 year yield is pushing 9%, there hasn't been a home sale in 6 months. Oil is $300, the US has an export ban on all oil products. The Nasdaq is 60,000 and VIX grinding along sub-10. Equity investors cite the coming Trump taco as the reason for calm. 😂🤣

The surprise in the Fed's SEP wasn't the hawkish revisions. Higher GDP, lower unemployment, higher inflation all tracks given recent data. The surprise was the absence of dissent and the clear consensus around a hiking cycle. Markets are pricing 4+ hikes by the end of 2027. I'd fade that big of a hiking cycle, but October looks underpriced.

Tin foil hat thought of the day. “Pacing the frontier” is the next effective altruism scam that is a cover up for the real truth. What is that real truth? I'm not sure. Is it: - Regulatory capture? - Losing market share and the AI race to China? - AI productivity not meeting expectations leading to capex slowing? - Government-fueled speculative AI bubble running out of steam into a soon to be gridlocked congress? - Something else?

Scouting the Tape #33 is out. In it we discuss FOMC reaction, the bond market and a number of charts that are grabbing our attention. Give it a read 👇 https://t.co/TFNoEenBs8

The S&P 500 is on its 6th negative day in the last 7. 2 year yields were positive 6 days in a row until today. DXY is on its 4th straight positive day. This is the market pricing in tomorrow's rate hike. Assuming Warsh doesn't intend on causing a volatility event by going turbo hawk, there's a decent chance the market sees some short-term relief no matter tomorrow's outcome.

New Scouting the Tape is out👇 Almost nothing matters until Wednesday at 2pm EST. I lean toward a hike given this committee's disdain for surprising markets, but without a good sense of Warsh's reaction function, I think it's prudent to respect the uncertainty. https://t.co/tDuwPW4IUn

At some point in the not too distant future, the market is likely to start caring about the growth implications of $100+ oil and ~2.5% real rates. https://t.co/bM5ZYJGbei