Nicky Shiels

Pick your poison for lower metals: higher US$, higher Oil (Iran/GCC Hormuz talks postponed indefinitely + Saudi shutting the East-West pipeline), inflation fears reviving Fed hike odds, AI-slowdown demand-destruction risk for Base/PGMs/Silver, and US tariff uncertainty on top. The model-implied Gold price is $3,970 given mkt pricing 2 Fed hikes within 6mo. Weds hike is fully priced with focus on the SEP dots & Warsh's presser, which carry more weight than the hike itself to pressure test whether this is a new hiking cycle Technically: 50 DMA sits ~$4,270. A new downtrend line has formed off the $4,700 post-FX/bond-intervention peak — echoes the Q1 ATH downtrend that compressed price into the ~$4K base, this time base support is ~$4,300, signaling persistent CTA selling. That downtrend break on the JPY intervention trigger was worth a $700 rerating.

Pick your poison for lower metals: higher US$, higher Oil (Iran/GCC Hormuz talks postponed indefinitely + Saudi shutting the East-West pipeline), inflation fears reviving Fed hike odds, AI-slowdown demand-destruction risk for Base/PGMs/Silver, and US tariff uncertainty on top. The model-implied Gold price is $3,970 given mkt pricing 2 Fed hikes within 6mo. Weds hike is fully priced with focus on the SEP dots & Warsh's presser, which carry more weight than the hike itself to pressure test whether this is a new hiking cycle Technically: 50 DMA sits ~$4,270. A new downtrend line has formed off the $4,700 post-FX/bond-intervention peak — echoes the Q1 ATH downtrend that compressed price into the ~$4K base, this time base support is ~$4,300, signaling persistent CTA selling. That downtrend break on the JPY intervention trigger was worth a $700 rerating.

Pick your poison for lower metals: higher US$, higher Oil (Iran/GCC Hormuz talks postponed indefinitely + Saudi shutting the East-West pipeline), inflation fears reviving Fed hike odds, AI-slowdown demand-destruction risk for Base/PGMs/Silver, and US tariff uncertainty on top. The model-implied Gold price is $3,970 given mkt pricing 2 Fed hikes within 6mo. Weds hike is fully priced with focus on the SEP dots & Warsh's presser, which carry more weight than the hike itself to pressure test whether this is a new hiking cycle Technically: 50 DMA sits ~$4,270. A new downtrend line has formed off the $4,700 post-FX/bond-intervention peak — echoes the Q1 ATH downtrend that compressed price into the ~$4K base, this time base support is ~$4,300, signaling persistent CTA selling. That downtrend break on the JPY intervention trigger was worth a $700 rerating.

Pick your poison for lower metals: higher US$, higher Oil (Iran/GCC Hormuz talks postponed indefinitely + Saudi shutting the East-West pipeline), inflation fears reviving Fed hike odds, AI-slowdown demand-destruction risk for Base/PGMs/Silver, and US tariff uncertainty on top. The model-implied Gold price is $3,970 given mkt pricing 2 Fed hikes within 6mo. Weds hike is fully priced with focus on the SEP dots & Warsh's presser, which carry more weight than the hike itself to pressure test whether this is a new hiking cycle Technically: 50 DMA sits ~$4,270. A new downtrend line has formed off the $4,700 post-FX/bond-intervention peak — echoes the Q1 ATH downtrend that compressed price into the ~$4K base, this time base support is ~$4,300, signaling persistent CTA selling. That downtrend break on the JPY intervention trigger was worth a $700 rerating.

"I am the House" said just before they announce their Treasury buyback program today. A larger Treasury buyback program (>$4bn) will put long-term bonds back in focus & help contain elevated yields. Signs of MORE FX & Bond intervention (vs market expectations) just keep lifting the Gold floor.

The US unveiled sanctions against more than 60 entities, focusing on five of Iran’s “most vital lifelines,” including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. A little circular... Todays announcement is acknowledgement of the existence of a parallel gold economy (which already exists ) --> cut off illicit Gold --> revalue legit US Gold --> pay for UST buybacks I duno... but what was fringe is becoming the norm....

Silver's stuck, not starved. Gold/Silver ratio slowly lifting off depressed sub-50 levels all year; Silver looks underpriced vs what the $ has done recently --it should've reacted with more upside by now. It doesn't feel like a lack of buying, but a wall of supply (base metal related hedging bleeding through?) — $70 is sticky. If Gold is NOT mispriced, what actually rerates Silver higher besides just grinding through $70 resistance??

Silver's stuck, not starved. Gold/Silver ratio slowly lifting off depressed sub-50 levels all year; Silver looks underpriced vs what the $ has done recently --it should've reacted with more upside by now. It doesn't feel like a lack of buying, but a wall of supply (base metal related hedging bleeding through?) — $70 is sticky. If Gold is NOT mispriced, what actually rerates Silver higher besides just grinding through $70 resistance??

Bond buyback = Precious Metals comeback https://t.co/E58jvBWEER

Gold was $4050 when Japan (and the US) intervened in the currency market (JPY) end-July. Gold was $4350 when US Treasury announced boosted debt buybacks today New higher floors after another major financial repression move "Markets Under Manipulation" pic ht @agnostoxxx https://t.co/jj9mIoQshT