Knox Ridley

It's not only the long-end of the yield curve that's moving higher. Probably the most concerning is the 2-year yield. That's a solid 5 waves higher from the FOMC rate cut . It broke through the down trend line, as well. We should get relief soon, but if that downtrend line holds as support and we take off from there, it will not be good for equities. Keep in mind, the FED follows the 2-year yield, not the other way around.

We started accumulating Bitcoin, again, in the low $20,000 region. We've been systematically buying the dip ever since. Once we get into the $78,000 - $92,000, we will begin distribution. https://t.co/mFTd5KLRNg

When semis diverge from the broad market, bad things tend to follow. Maybe this time is different? $NVDA $AVGO $TSM, seem to suggest this may be true. They account for 40% of $SMH, and they are at or testing ATHs. The rest of the major constituents look awful - multi-month downtrends still in tact, or completing large bear flags.

When semis diverge from the broad market, bad things tend to follow. Maybe this time is different? $NVDA $AVGO $TSM, seem to suggest this may be true. They account for 40% of $SMH, and they are at or testing ATHs. The rest of the major constituents look awful - multi-month downtrends still in tact, or completing large bear flags.

$TLT is 9% lower from the day the FOMC dropped rates. Also, it did so in a 5 wave move. If the next move is a corrective bounce, it could be setting up for a drop below the 2023 lows. This would imply the FED made a mistake, which the bond market is preparing for. https://t.co/wKWF67iTHK

We’re probably the only team crazy enough to post every trade and all our research, while competing with WallStreet. We barbelled cash (between 5%-20%) while having a 20% allocation to NVDA and 15% in Bitcoin over the last 2 years. So, yea, prematurely cautious, but not stupid about it. Still believe 2025 will be a very challenging year.

The Mag 7 and AI semiconductors are making lower highs while the broad market hits fresh highs. We discuss what it means when market leaders are not confirming a move higher in the S&P 500, and why the I/O Fund remains cautious of the current market environment in this week's newsletter. Sign up here ⬇️ https://t.co/aq7gUf3gaF

Normally, when I see a setup like this, I would bet a reversal is imminent. however, with the CPI tomorrow, we could easily get a breakout and push into +6000 SPX before the rolling over in a meaningful way. If we go below 5675, that's a problem for the bulls. https://t.co/qBKJwee2up

Rare cycle showing up right now for small caps. Last 3 times it hit was at the 2010 low, 2015 top, COVID top and now. Resistance is strong here and momentum is fading, so a top is likely. Small caps toped first in 2021, and I imagine they’ll bottom first in 2025.

Since 2021, every time the broad market makes a new high without semis, what follows has been a correction. The current divergence between the S&P 500 and Semis, right now, is one of the largest on record. https://t.co/MQeZqQMuRA