fred hickey

WSJ: "Anthropic more than doubled its revenue to $11.6 billion in the second quarter. To put its more than $30 trillion vision in context, the 191 technology companies in the S&P 1500 brought in $2.4 trillion in revenue last year, according to FactSet." Another way of looking at absurdity of the $30 trillion addressable market claim: annual U.S. GDP is currently $32.5 trillion. And yet this nonsense (wild proclamations and predictions) is allowed to continue so that Wall St. & Silly-con-Valley can extract as much money from unwitting "investors" as possible, before the inevitable stock market bubble collapses. https://t.co/JKhlVqCizs

Cramer referencing Bessent's (now failing) attempt to rally the bond market yesterday: “It’s a put. It’s an obvious put,” Cramer said, using an options term for a contract designed to protect an investor from downside risk." Without QE money printing it is NOT a put that can protect "investors" (speculators) from market declines (bonds or stocks). For the first time in 17 years the Fed chairman does not have QE in his toolbox (unless there's some sort of massive market meltdown). In the most overpriced and overleveraged stock market in U.S. history (thanks to the assumption of a Fed put over all these years) there is no net. It really is "different this time." Prepare accordingly. https://t.co/ZqQVevZ0Hu

Such a huge week coming up - last week of July heading into the seasonally weaker Aug.-mid Oct. period for stocks - as more of the market's generals (MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL) report results. Last week was problematic for the bulls as the prior favorites stumbled (Alphabet lost nearly $300 billion in one day) despite reporting earnings "beats" (except Tesla - which missed and saw its stock plunge 18% last week). Intel 's EPS doubled the analysts' estimates and its stock soared 8% in the after-market only to see it lose all the gains and much more -closing down 8% on Friday. Signs of exhaustion in the most overpriced and over-crowded stock market in U.S. history? Will any of the hyperscalers even hint of capex spending slowdowns given GOOGL's rough treatment last week? Will Apple's Q3 guidance disappoint given they've indicated there will be steep price hikes coming in September (likely pulling in sales from the second half into Q2) and the price increases will cause some customers to hold onto their phones longer? Will reports out of Asia that Apple's foldable phone availability will initially be limited due to production hiccups cause any heartburn? Indications are that AAPL's service revenue growth (including from the Apple Store) has already slowed. What about Apple's margins? DRAM & NAND makers' soaring margins are the result of skyrocketing memory prices. Companies such as Apple and Dell are getting hit with the higher costs- but Dell has an AI server business offset. Apple does not. So, was crowding into Apple last week at 11 times sales and a 40+ P/E a wise choice or a recipe for disaster? Seems to me AAPL wasn't the best "safe haven" choice for investors refusing to give up their bull market dreams. And let's not forget the Mideast war (not going well), soaring oil and products (gasoline and diesel) prices and climbing bond yields - typically not positive developments for tech stocks or the overall market. Yep, it could be a very interesting week.

Such a huge week coming up - last week of July heading into the seasonally weaker Aug.-mid Oct. period for stocks - as more of the market's generals (MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL) report results. Last week was problematic for the bulls as the prior favorites stumbled (Alphabet lost nearly $300 billion in one day) despite reporting earnings "beats" (except Tesla - which missed and saw its stock plunge 18% last week). Intel 's EPS doubled the analysts' estimates and its stock soared 8% in the after-market only to see it lose all the gains and much more -closing down 8% on Friday. Signs of exhaustion in the most overpriced and over-crowded stock market in U.S. history? Will any of the hyperscalers even hint of capex spending slowdowns given GOOGL's rough treatment last week? Will Apple's Q3 guidance disappoint given they've indicated there will be steep price hikes coming in September (likely pulling in sales from the second half into Q2) and the price increases will cause some customers to hold onto their phones longer? Will reports out of Asia that Apple's foldable phone availability will initially be limited due to production hiccups cause any heartburn? Indications are that AAPL's service revenue growth (including from the Apple Store) has already slowed. What about Apple's margins? DRAM & NAND makers' soaring margins are the result of skyrocketing memory prices. Companies such as Apple and Dell are getting hit with the higher costs- but Dell has an AI server business offset. Apple does not. So, was crowding into Apple last week at 11 times sales and a 40+ P/E a wise choice or a recipe for disaster? Seems to me AAPL wasn't the best "safe haven" choice for investors refusing to give up their bull market dreams. And let's not forget the Mideast war (not going well), soaring oil and products (gasoline and diesel) prices and climbing bond yields - typically not positive developments tech stocks or the overall market. Yep, it could be a very interesting week.

Ruh ro! Middle East war escalating with no end in sight (along with U.S. government spending). Oil prices quickly heading to $100 a barrel and "products" prices (gasoline, diesel) jumping too. Investors beginning to sour on the hyperscalers' ginormous datacenter spending binges (with no proof of returns on investment). Bond yields climbing to dangerous levels that could start breaking things - including the "basis trade." Reversal of the hedge funds' basis trade is a potentially (mostly hidden to investors) time bomb: "The dynamic, should it continue, has the potential to shake up the $31 trillion (US Treasury) market, which in recent years has increasingly relied on hedge funds to provide the liquidity to keep markets operating smoothly." Methinks the stock market's Invince-a-bulls' complacency may be tested in the coming days and weeks. Buckle up! https://t.co/7jsCYxK2is

The circular "flywheel" keeps turning. It was called "vendor financing" in 2000. Ultimately led to disaster. https://t.co/jovkiMMnnt

In addition to the explosion of margin debt in dollar terms (up 50% Y/Y to $1.5T), as a percentage of GDP it's 4.6% vs. 3% at the https://t.co/qfgqwjVZ3j bubble top in 2000. The level of speculation in today's market is epic. https://t.co/ED7RyFoQ3Z

Despite heavy headwinds for gold: War back on and oil prices up (except for today), Warsh talking tough on inflation (and talk is all it is) and rate hike expectations, I think gold is holding up fairly well around $4,000. Once again today, gold dropped below $4,000 but fired right back up over that level. It's the miners that are getting clobbered (GDX down another 3% today). I'm nibbling a little bit on them, but if there's some type of capitulation whoosh down on the group with gold still holding up - I expect to be a more aggressive buyer. Their margins and cash flows are still very high and the stocks are dirt cheap.

Important points from Apollo's Torsten Slok: "Net foreign inflows into US equities have surged to a record high, driven in large part by overseas investors seeking AI exposure" "With most foreign equity investors not hedging their FX risk, the bottom line is that if AI disappoints, the resulting pullback in these inflows would be a significant downside risk to the US dollar." My take: It's not IF AI disappoints, the only question is when. And when that happens, the massively overbought dollar (hedge funds are also heavily long currently) could decline significantly and that would be an important propellant for gold (which is oversold and under-owned by hedge funds). Gold is currently signaling it may have already reached a bottom.

"The debasement trade is getting a bit dead," JPMorgan's Chandan said. As long as we've had the Federal Reserve (nearly 113 years), the debasement trade has been very much alive as the Fed central planners always cave to the politicians' pressures to debase. Sometimes (such as now) there are periods where it might appear they're tough on inflation (such as when a new Fed chairman has to establish his bona fides). Nevertheless, we can count on more debasement - especially after asset bubbles break - and the bubble we're in today is a doozy. https://t.co/YAjK82ihJq