Corn Maxy

Big rotation in Global Spot ETP Flows last week: - Bitcoin:  -$113.9 mn - Ethereum:  -$174.2 mn - Altcoins ex ETH:  +$166.1 mn

Crypto unphased by the failure of CLARITY. https://t.co/UKrN4LUa8h

Big diversion in Global ETP flows last week. Bitcoin = -434.3 mn vs Ethereum = +142.5 mn Alts ex-ETH = +98.3 mn

We are on track for 3 consecutive months of ETHBTC outperformance. The first time since May 2021.

On ETH: ETP investors remain above their aggregate cost basis of ~$2.1k. This cohort has historically proved sticky, with cumulative ETH ETP holdings drawing down only ~17% at the 2026 cycle lows. Whilst prices declined -68% from its cycle peak. That figure now stands at ~6%, suggesting ETP investors have been net accumulating.

Over the past six months our Long Term composite has risen from 27% to 58%, with the trough in February at around 22%. The re-rating was led by two signals: 1) the volatility-adjusted Mayer Multiple, which recovered from near the bottom of its range to the 82nd percentile, 2) aggregated SOPR, which rose from the 16th to the 59th percentile. Momentum indicator slightly overheated, however the profitability of spent-output has room to run. Broadly risk on. Holding above $2.5k (200w MA, rejected 4 times in 2 weeks) confirms it.

$2.5k is a confluence of both the 200w MA and where investors hold 1.3 mn ETH. We've tested this level 4 times in ~2 weeks. Definitely the line in the sand for short-medium term momentum, with BTC testing the ETF cost basis of ~$82k earlier this week. Resistance levels below sit between the $2.1k- 2.2k range that is the realised price, 50d MA, Short Term Holder cost basis and average ETP (incl. ETF) cost basis.

ETH has lost the 200w MA. The $2.2k-$2.1k range is the next level to defend with a convergence of the - 200d EMA, - 50d EMA, - STH cost basis, - realised price and - average ETP cost basis Net ETH ETF flows dramatically slowing. Whilst BTC ETF flows seen recent outflows. Spot volumes still thin at the 12th percentile year over year. Downside levels to watch for support is the $2k mark where investors hold 1.5 mn ETH.

ETP Flows (% of AUM) now explains almost 60% of ETHs price variation. Over the last three months, ETH has absorbed $506.4 mn of global ETP flows, vs BTC's $-3.3 bn, vs Altcoins ex-ETH of $174.8 mn. This is a major source of its recent ETHBTC outperformance. Looking forward, ETH seems somewhat stretched. Last week's global spot ETP flows were hearty at $627 mn, however, our Sentiment indicators suggest overheating that warrants digestion. Should spot flows fail to materialise, footing below could be uneasy, especially as we've now crossed the ETP cost basis of $2.1k with investors potentially looking to sell into strength after a consecutive 85 days in the red.

Top three coin 24hr returns: Ethereum = 20% Chainlink = 21% Hyperliquid = 24% One's to watch for the next bull market