Anas Alhajji

EOA: The Graham Act: Legal Cover, Not New Power. It Should Not Scare Indian Refiners. Reuters: India’s Russian Oil Imports Fell in August, Seen Lower in September, Data Shows Summary India’s Russian oil imports fell 16.5% in August to about 2.1 mb/d, trade data showed, though Russia stayed the top supplier, ahead of the UAE and Venezuela. Total imports dropped 8.8% to 4.44 mb/d. Middle East supply rose as ADNOC sold crude from Fujairah and Sohar, outside Hormuz. Saudi shipments rose 1.5% to 328 kb/d. Iraqi volumes jumped a quarter to 171 kb/d. Kpler sees Russian imports falling to 1.9 mb/d in September. Refiners are buying October and November spot barrels in case Trump imposes 100% tariffs on Russian-oil buyers. Figure 2 shows trends in India’s crude imports by source. Imports from Russia declined in August and appear to be falling further in September. Total imports, however, are rebounding in September. EOA’s Main Takeaway The decline in India’s Russian crude imports in August and September reflects falling Russian exports, not a deliberate Indian diversification strategy. Total imports still rebounded in September as more barrels moved through the Strait of Hormuz from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait. The rise in imports of unknown origin should become clearer soon; it would not be surprising if some of those barrels prove to be Russian crude drawn from floating storage. Indian media has raised concerns about the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed into law by President Trump. We covered this yesterday, but the volume of follow-up questions warrants another look: The Act does not change the situation on the ground. It places implementation in the president’s hands, and presidents already have broad powers in this area. It does not add much that was not already available. What it does provide is legal backing in US courts if Trump’s decisions are challenged. Countries have 180 days to comply. Even then, they need only show a plan and a willingness to reduce imports. Trump does not want higher oil prices before the elections, or while the Hormuz disruption continues. The Act is therefore largely symbolic and should have limited impact on India. Even if Trump decides to pressure India, Indian refiners can cut Russian crude by about 300–400 kb/d from August levels without much difficulty. If Hormuz flows continue at the pace seen over the past week or so, India can replace those barrels relatively quickly. The constraint for refiners is not availability. It is cost: Russian crude remains significantly cheaper than alternative grades.

Catch of the day! Brent at exactly a $100 https://t.co/lMfdRlfxfY

Brent is down to around $98 👇👇👇 https://t.co/1a5yOmybUY

🔥🎇WOOW.... If President Trump is serious about lowering oil prices, he should pay attention to this too: Press the translate button: 👇👇👇👇👇 https://t.co/rv6NMRopwa

🛞To understand the Middle East now, you have to see that the conflicts are multi-layered and multi-dimensional with multiple players. The implications are significant. 🛞 Making money doesn't mean understanding the situation. When oil prices rise for any reason, even Bozo makes money. 🛞 It’s always disappointing to see market analysis based entirely on news and media reports. Remember: a media outlet recently covered a natural-gas story and treated “gas” as gasoline. Also, some “oil” accounts on X that sound Western are actually Iranian. Some "oil" accounts that claim to be "Arab" are NOT "Arabs".

Oil prices are down by more than 2%. Brent is around $101. https://t.co/nrdQ24FjGV

Oil prices are down by more than 2%. Brent is around $101. https://t.co/nrdQ24FjGV

I mentioned in one of the Spaces that one of the problems we have in the oil market is “obsession.” Obsession with Houthi attacks on the already closed Jazan refinery, for example, while large crude and product losses were in the Black Sea. Obsession with the Saudi announcement that they will not send oil shipments to Europe, while the pipeline was shut down a week earlier, leading to a halt in exports. Yet they ignored the decline in supply in 8 countries that are not even in the region. They ignored, for example, that Mexico’s crude exports declined to the lowest levels in 50 years. Here is the most important one: they are obsessed with Brent and WTI while the impact of events in Hormuz and the Red Sea is on DME Oman. Price differentials reached more than $40/b at the height of the crisis when prices exceeded $170, and about $30+ recently.

I mentioned in one of the Spaces that one of the problems we have in the oil market is “obsession.” Obsession with Houthi attacks on the already closed Jazan refinery, for example, while large crude and product losses were in the Black Sea. Obsession with the Saudi announcement that they will not send oil shipments to Europe, while the pipeline was shut down a week earlier, leading to a halt in exports. Yet they ignored the decline in supply in 8 countries that are not even in the region. They ignored, for example, that Mexico’s crude exports declined to the lowest levels in 50 years. Here is the most important one: they are obsessed with Brent and WTI while the impact of events in Hormuz and the Red Sea is on DME Oman. Price differentials reached more than $40/b at the height of the crisis when prices exceeded $170, and about $30+ recently.

I mentioned in one of the Spaces that one of the problems we have in the oil market is “obsession.” Obsession with Houthi attacks on the already closed Jazan refinery, for example, while large crude and product losses were in the Black Sea. Obsession with the Saudi announcement that they will not send oil shipments to Europe, while the pipeline was shut down a week earlier, leading to a halt in exports. Yet they ignored the decline in supply in 8 countries that are not even in the region. They ignored, for example, that Mexico’s crude exports declined to the lowest levels in 50 years. Here is the most important one: they are obsessed with Brent and WTI while the impact of events in Hormuz and the Red Sea is on DME Oman. Price differentials reached more than $40/b at the height of the crisis when prices exceeded $170, and about $30+ recently.