Art Berman

A $50-billion plan to “bypass Hormuz” sounds better than it works. Pipelines can move oil—not LNG, container cargo or much of the Gulf’s commodity trade. And the Saudi East-West attack just demonstrated that pipelines are targets too. Then there’s the money. Private capital has little appetite for expensive, long-payout strategic redundancy unless governments absorb much of the risk. This looks less like replacing Hormuz than moving the vulnerability somewhere else. The PACT proposal addresses a real vulnerability but greatly understates the problem. You can build more crude-oil bypass capacity, but you cannot pipeline LNG, container cargo and much of the Gulf’s commodity trade around Hormuz. And replacing a maritime chokepoint with thousands of miles of exposed fixed infrastructure merely exchanges one vulnerability for another. The harder question is who will finance decades-long strategic redundancy that may have poor economics once the war ends. https://t.co/ck7YwHdIL0

A $50-billion plan to “bypass Hormuz” sounds better than it works. Pipelines can move oil—not LNG, container cargo or much of the Gulf’s commodity trade. And the Saudi East-West attack just demonstrated that pipelines are targets too. Then there’s the money. Private capital has little appetite for expensive, long-payout strategic redundancy unless governments absorb much of the risk. This looks less like replacing Hormuz than moving the vulnerability somewhere else. The PACT proposal addresses a real vulnerability but greatly understates the problem. You can build more crude-oil bypass capacity, but you cannot pipeline LNG, container cargo and much of the Gulf’s commodity trade around Hormuz. And replacing a maritime chokepoint with thousands of miles of exposed fixed infrastructure merely exchanges one vulnerability for another. The harder question is who will finance decades-long strategic redundancy that may have poor economics once the war ends. https://t.co/ck7YwHdIL0

A $50-billion plan to “bypass Hormuz” sounds better than it works. Pipelines can move oil—not LNG, container cargo or much of the Gulf’s commodity trade. And the Saudi East-West attack just demonstrated that pipelines are targets too. Then there’s the money. Private capital has little appetite for expensive, long-payout strategic redundancy unless governments absorb much of the risk. This looks less like replacing Hormuz than moving the vulnerability somewhere else. The PACT proposal addresses a real vulnerability but greatly understates the problem. You can build more crude-oil bypass capacity, but you cannot pipeline LNG, container cargo and much of the Gulf’s commodity trade around Hormuz. And replacing a maritime chokepoint with thousands of miles of exposed fixed infrastructure merely exchanges one vulnerability for another. The harder question is who will finance decades-long strategic redundancy that may have poor economics once the war ends. https://t.co/ck7YwHdIL0

China asking Iran to restrain the Houthis may have helped oil prices fall—but beware tidy cause-and-effect stories. WTI was already overbought and carried about a $22 risk premium. Sometimes the news is merely the catalyst for a correction the market was already prepared to make. China asking Iran to restrain Houthi attacks provided a convenient explanation for Friday’s oil-price decline, and it may have contributed. But the market was already primed for a correction. WTI had pushed to the top of its Bollinger range, while comparative inventory suggested that roughly $22 of the ~$99 price was geopolitical risk premium, with an inventory-implied price near $75. In other words, a lot of bad news was already priced in. Markets rarely move for one reason, even when the news cycle supplies a tidy explanation. The more important question is whether physical flows and inventories improve enough to justify unwinding that premium. https://t.co/wu1kjdazik

China asking Iran to restrain the Houthis may have helped oil prices fall—but beware tidy cause-and-effect stories. WTI was already overbought and carried about a $22 risk premium. Sometimes the news is merely the catalyst for a correction the market was already prepared to make. China asking Iran to restrain Houthi attacks provided a convenient explanation for Friday’s oil-price decline, and it may have contributed. But the market was already primed for a correction. WTI had pushed to the top of its Bollinger range, while comparative inventory suggested that roughly $22 of the ~$99 price was geopolitical risk premium, with an inventory-implied price near $75. In other words, a lot of bad news was already priced in. Markets rarely move for one reason, even when the news cycle supplies a tidy explanation. The more important question is whether physical flows and inventories improve enough to justify unwinding that premium. https://t.co/wu1kjdazik

Bessent says pipelines will make Hormuz “worthless” within two years. Qatar’s energy minister: “I don’t think that it’s ever going to be obsolete.” His point is bigger than oil: Pipelines can reroute some crude, but LNG and a wide range of Gulf trade still require maritime access through Hormuz. The IEA says essentially all Qatari and UAE LNG exports to the global market transit the Strait—about 20% of global LNG trade in 2025—with no comparable alternative route. The Iran War has demonstrated the distinction vividly: Oil has proved relatively adaptable through pipelines, shuttle tankers and transfers; LNG has been far harder to reroute. Bypass capacity can reduce dependence on Hormuz. It cannot make geography obsolete. #Hormuz #LNG #Oil #Energy #IranWar #Qatar

U.S. natural gas 6-month spread narrowed $0.16 (279%) November contract rose $0.06 to $3.04 week ending September 14 Front-month price rose $0.08 (3%) from $2.83 to $2.91 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/wPr2xNY8el

U.S. natural gas futures price rose $0.08 from $2.83 to $2.91 for the week ending September 19 Prices are likely to move sideways on Monday based on 12-month spread #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/YdS5T5ylif

Brent futures 12-month spread narrowed $2.42 (9%) 6-month spread narrowed $2.19 (13%) for the week ending September 18 Front-month fell $0.74 (1%) from $104.61 to $103.87 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket #Brent https://t.co/BdZbEC8N0R

Brent futures 12-month spread narrowed $2.42 (9%) 6-month spread narrowed $2.19 (13%) for the week ending September 18 Front-month fell $0.74 (1%) from $104.61 to $103.87 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket #Brent https://t.co/BdZbEC8N0R