Warren Pies

Can we bury the "hike to control the long end" thesis?

Instructive to see a post like this get so much traction. B200 rental rates up 30% YTD. Hyperscaler cloud revenues tracking along. Remember: GPU rental rates and token prices were supposed to fall over time. The demand metrics this year have beaten all informed expectations. https://t.co/3qJdwwaoZY https://t.co/lSvH4gADkQ

Macro fundamentals to get clear on: The Fed is at the center of the rates market. The Fed tells the 2y where to go (not the other way around). Oil matters to yields only to the extent it matters to the Fed.

Semis + Mag7/Hyperscalers up together today. This has been a rarity this year (semi vs hyperscaler correlation at an all-time low). The recipe for new S&P 500 highs is hypers + semis rallying together. https://t.co/N1mO9qxSU4

FED It's popular to suggest the 10y yield will fall if the Fed hikes rates this week. Unless this is a "one and done" hike, though, history suggests the 10y will rise as the hike cycle progresses. The 10y has risen in every modern hike cycle (especially early in the cycle). https://t.co/uluCwhJVzW

S&P 500 To make new highs, the market needs semiconductors to get into gear. YTD, the S&P 500 is up ~60% on days when the semi industry is positive. But, the S&P 500 is down ~30% on days semis are down. No other industry has had this large of an effect on the index in 2026. https://t.co/aDxntJejPN

CPI above the Waller line...Hike is coming. https://t.co/8kww4zQsAq

Not a single forecast above the "Waller line" of .25%. https://t.co/wehr0Shan2

OIL Shanghai crude futures above Brent Crude for the first time since May. China's buyer strike has been the most important reason oil prices have remained subdued during the Iran War. It seems China is buying again now... https://t.co/qUeU2rl4yL

This was as dovish as Waller could be. Historically, I have liked how Waller conducts himself on the FOMC. But, hinging policy decisions on one print is a sign of how much political pressure the committee is feeling. https://t.co/jNQUtX69Hz