Troy Teslike

My estimate for Tesla’s Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS is $0.55, the same as the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers within two hours. https://t.co/uV6W8kLYRi

Interestingly, I've published Q2 delivery estimates for the past eight years, and all eight were lower than the actual number, including this latest one. Somehow, Tesla keeps outperforming expectations in Q2.

The actual numbers are in. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026. My estimate was 2.9% too low, while the analyst consensus was 15.4% too low. • Actual: 480,126 • My estimate: 466,000 (Error: -14,126 units or -2.9%) • Analyst consensus: 406,024 (Error: -74,102 units or -15.4%) For deliveries, I was aiming for an error of less than 3%, so I'm happy with the result. My production estimate was even closer, with an error of just -0.5%. Production is easier for me to estimate thanks to VIN data.

Hi everyone. Here are my Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 2026. The gap between my estimate and the analyst consensus is unusually large this time. • My estimate: 466,000 • Analyst consensus: 406,024 (based on Tesla's survey of 22 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on June 26)

The actual numbers are in. Tesla beat the estimates. Non-GAAP EPS: • Actual: $0.41 • My Estimate: $0.39 • Analyst Consensus: $0.33 The last three columns show the actual results, my estimates, and the analyst consensus. https://t.co/A8kPd2mg4p

Here are my estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.39 • Analyst Consensus: $0.33 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers in a few hours. The $0.33 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 20 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, released on Tesla’s website on April 17: https://t.co/9xSyXOnUbK

Here are my estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.39 • Analyst Consensus: $0.33 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers in a few hours. The $0.33 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 20 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, released on Tesla’s website on April 17: https://t.co/9xSyXOnUbK

No, I didn’t change anything. We stopped getting weekly China car insurance numbers in mid-October 2025, which made estimating China more difficult. US estimates were already difficult due to limited data. I expected Tesla to make reasonable adjustments to production, such as reducing output when demand is weak, but that didn’t happen this time. As a result, I overestimated despite being cautious. The tables show my estimates, actual deliveries based on the data available so far (China numbers are still missing), and the difference between the two.

Unfortunately, Tesla missed expectations this time. Actual deliveries were below both my estimate and the analyst consensus. The 50,363-unit gap between production and deliveries was unusually large, suggesting weaker demand in the US. Estimates vs Actual: 390,000 - @TSLAFanMtl 382,000 - @FutureAZA 377,251 - @ICannot_Enough 377,000 - @garyblack00 375,000 - @TroyTeslike 375,000 - @CuriousPejjy 372,000- @grok 365,645 - Analyst consensus 358,023 - Actual Deliveries

Hi everyone. Here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2026: • My estimate: 375,000 • Analyst consensus: 365,645 (based on Tesla’s survey of 23 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Mar 26) Last year, Q1 deliveries were 336,681 units, unusually low because of the Model Y Juniper transition. It’s a low bar to clear, though it’s still unclear whether full-year deliveries will exceed 2025.