Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA ⛏⛏

Gold & Silver peaked before the Iran War started. They are also not widely owned. They are down because they are correcting and digesting record moves while the yield curve is flattening and real interest rates have moved higher. No relation to any potential credit event. Meanwhile, stocks are at all-time highs. Stocks are the source of liquidity in any credit event. This isn't 2008 when Gold was widely over-owned. In 2020 Gold's decline was very brief.

This four-year-old chart shows the implied global allocation to precious metals. I updated the current reading today using publicly available figures. 2011 peak: 14.5% Current global allocation: approximately 3.7% USA allocation: only about 1.7% Even after the recent strength, precious metals remain materially under-owned, at only a fraction of 2011 peak.

The first hike of a new Fed tightening cycle marks a low in Gold when Gold weakens into the decision. The bigger signal comes when the 2-year Treasury yield peaks. After the last three peaks in the 2-year yield, Gold surged: +215% in 2.3 years +78% in 1.8 years +63% in 9 months

Don’t be a victim of the 2008 Boogeyman. Most investors underestimate how far precious metals can run DURING the coming bear market, not afterward. Gold has already corrected 29%. Silver, 55%. And people are still waiting for a crash? There will be normal pullbacks along the way, but precious metals are far less risky today than they’ve been at any point in recent years.

Gold stocks surged more than 20% this week. What does that imply going forward? Historically, one-week gains of +15% or more after a deep decline have been a strong bullish signal, and suggest the bottom is likely in. These moves are bearish only when they occur after a major advance. Gold stocks were even more LT oversold in 2008 and 2016, and less so in 2020. In each case, explosive one-week rallies marked the start of a powerful recovery. Backing and filling is possible but the lows are definitely in.

Gold’s drawdown was right in line with past secular bull market declines: 1973: 28% in 5 months 1975: 45% in 20 months (outlier) 2006: 23% in 5 months 2008: 30% in 7 months 2026: 27% in 6 months Also: 2020: 20% in 7 months 2022: 22% in 6.5 months The circles on the chart mark major bottoms in 1973, 2006, 2008 and 2026.

When your own YouTube comment summary turns into a contrarian indicator… “Significant portion of the audience believes actual bottom for Gold is lower than suggested, citing $3400-$3600”

@lighthousejerry @Sorenthek @jameshenryand @silverguru22 @peter_krauth They usually bottom around the same time but Silver does tend to lag and follow.

Major Silver corrections comparable to today’s decline. 1980 is an outlier and not a useful comp. Circles mark the post-peak lows following 1974, 2008, and 2011. Bottom coming, then minimum $70 Silver in winter. https://t.co/iG6BVgC1qI

Major Silver corrections comparable to today’s decline. 1980 is an outlier and not a useful comp. Circles mark the post-peak lows following 1974, 2008, and 2011. Bottom coming, then minimum $70 Silver in winter. https://t.co/iG6BVgC1qI