Rory Johnston

@Namzes_G depends on how strict the diesel export restrictions would be. If total, you'd soon see US domestic refinery run cuts, which would depress US crude demand and begin widening WTI-export arb

@Namzes_G depends on how strict the diesel export restrictions would be. If total, you'd soon see US domestic refinery run cuts, which would depress US crude demand and begin widening WTI-export arb

Brent back under $100/bbl for the first time since before the attack on the East-West pipeline. Market putting faith in the latest round of diplomacy, I guess. https://t.co/z4OtEl3xKN

Reminder that soon-to-be-published Commitments of Traders data will reveal trader positions in crude contracts *as of Tuesday's close*, when Brent was sitting just below $109/bbl. Expect to see a very overstretched-bullish print, but we're already down from those levels today.

Favourite new trend—interpret this sentiment signal as you will—is angry oil-bullish reply guys flaming me for saying something that largely supports their position (ie, explaining price decline via positioning flows, why the Shanghai price is falling despite Brent firming, etc) https://t.co/JicthKFqXX

Hormuz oil flow continues to rise and Chinese import appetite, while off its lows, is still holding well below its prewar levels—not shocking that Chinese crude prices are easing fastest. Brent complex, meanwhile, has gotten net-tighter as prior Saudi Red Sea-to-Med flow is forced back into the Gulf by East-West pipeline outage. Regional whack-a-mole, innit

Hormuz oil flow continues to rise and Chinese import appetite, while off its lows, is still holding well below its prewar levels—not shocking that Chinese are easing fastest. Brent complex, meanwhile, has gotten net-tighter as prior Saudi Red Sea-to-Med flow is forced back into the Gulf by East-West pipeline outage. Regional whack-a-mole, innit

Oil back off its lows for the day. Flat prompt Brent futures price (white) ~$5/bbl off its recent highs but still $5/bbl higher than before the East-West Pipeline was struck last Thursday. Same story for prompt Brent timespreads (blue), off their highs but well more backwardated than before the EW hit.

Brent giving back some of its recent strength this morning, both in flat price and term structure. Flat Brent price down $7 over the past three days and prompt Brent spread down from $5.50 to $4. https://t.co/FGRrbBysku

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Oil prices pop, diesel crack spreads hit all-time highs, crude backwardation sharply steepened, and the US and Iran exchanged intensified strikes amidst still-rising Hormuz oil flows. Summary below, link to full report in reply. https://t.co/Grz7JTmaqQ