Tom McClellan

ROC (Rate Of Change) is a simple indicator measuring today's price change from XX-days ago. In $XLF , high readings can mark strong initiation with more to come. Deep negative readings are usually exhaustive, at least temporarily. https://t.co/xS0r8yFKAN

Sometimes at important bottoms, that's true. https://t.co/ZdtJylyzdn https://t.co/kfs7abbvZH

Please allow me to translate the profound message Linda is conveying. She is noting that the intraday price uptrend on Monday is very linear, such that even a very tight stop is not getting hit. Signal processing engineers would say that there is a high "signal to noise" ratio. Smooth intraday trends typically happen when there is a large amount of money that needs to get put to work, but the big firms don't want to dump a large order into the market all at once and move prices. So their trading desks use algorithms to chop up the large slug of money into smaller pieces, doling orders out more slowly. This results in that linear form of the intraday chart plot. The key takeaway, therefore, is that there must be a large amount of money deciding to move now, based on seeing footprints in the intraday plot which match the behavior of prices when that condition is in effect.

This chart appeared in my Daily Edition on Friday. In late July, the non-commercial traders of Bitcoin futures were at an all-time record net long position as a group. Unlike most futures, the "commercial" traders are not the smart money in Bitcoin, where few traders qualify. Instead, the non-commercials (think large hedge funds) are the smart money. As BTC prices rose in August, these traders pared their longs rapidly, which gave me some concern. But over the past 2 weeks they have been reestablishing a big net long position, ahead of the rally we are seeing today.

Positive breadth at the close on Monday will bring a 3rd McClellan Oscillator bottom, higher than the last two, which is a powerful bullish signal. We last saw one of those at the March 30, 2026 low. https://t.co/u4Re5rehgl

The further point about my chart is that in yen futures, as in most, the commercials are the smart money. Bessent arrogantly proclaimed that he is "the house", and you can fight him if you want (on the yen intervention). It looks like the smart money traders are deciding to fight him, as they have made a dramatic lurch to the short side on this small rise in the yen's value.

It is true that Robert Shiller's CAPE is was up above 40. But some understanding of the math is helpful. CAPE averages monthly earnings going back 10 years. So when there is a big recent surge in earnings, and prices, CAPE does not keep up very well. If we look at a raw trailing SP500 P/E Ratio, it is at a level that used to be considered quite high years ago, but is pretty moderate compared to the last 3 decades.

@hectorchamizo @i3_invest Se le olvido' una divergencia clave, que no produjo una coreccion grande. Es posible que la suave coreccion desde el cumbre de precios del NDX en Mayo ya es el resultado de esta divergencia, similar a 2023. https://t.co/KBfMevrt6o

I am going to pose this question precisely, so if you respond please apply similar precision: What evidence have you personally seen that earnings are determinative of what the stock market does, vs. the other way around? No assumptions, no hypotheses; please cite actual evidence you have seen to support that view.

The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator got down to -175 on Thursday, its lowest reading since the March price lows. I'd love to see an even more oversold reading than this to mark the September seasonal low, but this may be all we get. https://t.co/5yTGVVD3CH