Kathy Jones

Bond market is biting back. Looks like loss of confidence in Treasury management of yields.

This is just to say that when oil prices and bond yields diverge, it is a signal from the market that high prices are curbing growth. Demand destruction becomes a concern. It's not a forecast and I am not recommending long-dated bonds. Just pointing out a signal to watch. https://t.co/eHhdZStnRQ

War continues. I am watching the cross asset class correlations. So far, bond yields and oil have moved together on inflation concerns. But eventually high oil prices are negative for growth. When bond yields fall as oil prices rise it’s a signal of shifting market concerns.

Foreign private investors (not governments or central banks) have been increasing their Treasury bill holdings. Foreign official (which includes governments and central banks) holdings of Treasury bills have been slowly decreasing over the years but have picked up a bit lately. https://t.co/qqg1QNjWvD

For those who follow it: Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement largely in line with expectations. Auction sizes unchanged, T-bill issuance to stay high and buy back program to begin soon.

@rinsana Nah. T-bill auction went very well. Bond market is more worried that the Fed will follow Canada in hiking after a pause.

The T-bill market is getting even more worried about a possible default. Bloomberg chart shows the widening spread between bills maturing in the "x-date" time frame and those maturing later on. https://t.co/fD539Y4J9k

#Bonds are back. The gap between the yield on 6-month T-bills and the earnings yield on the S&P500 is closing. The last time it was this tight the #iPhone had yet to be released, frosted tips were a thing, and Destiny’s Child was topping the charts. https://t.co/wtqSRzdGoF

Friday: Markets on defense as US treasury yields move higher on stronger than expected eco data and Fedspeak. Stocks lower, bond yields up, dollar stronger and gold/oil down. Why take risk if you can get 5% in a 6 mo T-bill? Export/import prices out today.

Just for fun: My daughter's reddit trading friends are very excited about the opportunities in T-bills.