Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report

Macro is messy. But all signs are pointing to the “early bull” for BTC. We discussed why + the signals we are looking for in this weeks show 👇 https://t.co/lREQfZEgm2

Quick update on the BTC ETFs. Both Monday and Tuesday saw the largest inflow days since the market top on 10/6 of last year. This marked the 12th and 13th-largest inflow days on record since inception in January of '24. --- As this plays out, the average ETF holder is now in profit for the first time since last January (avg. cost roughly $82k). Total ETF AUM (in BTC) is now down just 6.6% from the highs of last October (after falling 11% at the lows in late June). --- If you're a Pro Member, please note that the chart in today's report didn't have the updated numbers (data hadn't come in when we drafted it) --- We shared our latest "cycle awareness" report today, in which we updated our views on our conviction regarding whether we've entered the "early bull" phase of the cycle. If you'd like to unlock it with one month free + access our portfolio and receive alerts when we make changes, see the link below 👇

The best part of TDR Pro is that I am our #1 customer. Every asset we cover. Every KPI we track. Every dashboard we make. Every report I write. Every decision that is made. I'm the #1 consumer of all of it. And I pay WAY more than any other TDR Pro member (data, operating costs, my time). I simply offer access to everything via TDR Pro at a really low price point (consumed by both institutions and retail), while managing my own capital. Ultimately, the product is exactly what I would want in a research product: - aligned incentives - full transparency - portfolio-first approach - no conflicts of interest - proven public track record across cycles - access to execution + research + data We do not offer a TG channel/community group. Why? I've never used them myself (use X and other social for this). While it's not always true, I think they introduce more noise than signal. Also, our product isn't designed to tell others what to do (which I think is why most people want the group). Rather, we simply share what we are doing. That way, our customers can use our data, research, and execution and fold it into their own frameworks, compare against others, etc. We're working on several product enhancements behind the scenes, but a TG group isn't one of them. With that said, feel free to shill me on why we need one, and I will still consider it.

Quick snapshot of the current TDR Pro portfolio, by category: 1. Perps (9.5%): +399.2% 2. Options (10.2%): +332.5% 3. Consumer Retail Infra/Fast DeFi (20.5%): +301.7% 4. Memes (14.1%): +189% 5. Stablecoins (6.7%): +92.1% 6. Privacy (4.3%): +84.2% 7. AI/Digital Identity (1.6%): +71.5% 8. SOV (25.9%): +42% 9. Cash (7.2%) We have 15 positions, with a 93% hit rate (4/15 positions are currently up at least 300%). These are the themes we covered extensively during the bear market via The Watch List. Generally speaking, the view is that apps with product/market fit, strong token economics/buybacks, and strong teams in growth sectors will outperform the infrastructure they run on during this cycle. That doesn't mean I'm bearish on infrastructure. Just view it more as an index play (L1s). As for the biggest miss? Privacy. Got bundled by ZEC. I missed it this time last year as I was turning risk off and didn't have the ability to hold the view that markets were turning risk-off broadly, but ZEC could still outperform. Then thought it would go lower after the security exploit and didn't buy in the $200 - $300 range. Have now established a position, but at higher levels. Can't win em all. With that said, I'm pleased with our risk management (went to cash at the highs last year) and execution in the bear. But at the end of the day, true success comes from managing risk through the entire cycle. Expecting volatility. And believe we will continue to see strong dispersion and a "stock pickers" market, with assets continuing to detach from BTC as various phases of the cycle. --- If you'd like to see the assets behind the themes, the high-level reporting vs. benchmarks, and receive our Pro-only reports and portfolio alerts, you can sign up below and get one month free 👇

Probabilities are pointing to this chart bottoming out (higher low). Waves of activity, but the power law looks like it's taking over, with one launchpad owning the lion's share of activity on Robinhood Chain. https://t.co/jP7EaWTYrw

Record views on last week's episode. One of the most important ones we've done. We designed the episode to stand the test of time and be something we can look back on as the next cycle progresses. If you don't have a way of orienting yourself to "where we are in the cycle," you're flying blind. We share exactly how to track everything each week in TDR Pro + portfolio access and risk management through cycles. This is the framework that had us buying the lows in '22, exiting at the highs in '25, and buying the lows across our "fair value" targets this year. You can sign up below to get one month free 👇

So, now you're gonna tell me that: - 10-year pushing 5% - Oil prices moved over $100 - Fed hikes (with the market pricing in two more) - Escalation in Iran - Quantum threats - More AI doom - Clarity Act fails You're gonna tell me all that? And then you're gonna tell me that BTC whistled past it all, piercing through the 50 WMA and establishing a "golden cross" after 9+ months of holder base rotation? And you want me to be bearish? ---- Last week, we shared our latest report, "Return of the Animal Spirits" We created it as a guide for Pro members to navigate the next bull market. In my opinion, it's one of the most valuable pieces of content we've ever dropped. Looks like we couldn't have released it at a better time. If you'd like to access the report, see the link below to join TDR Pro for one month free 👇 ---- P.S. I'm Back :)

Quick announcement: I'm getting married this weekend and will be offline next week. @RyanSAdams and I just pre-recorded next week's show, which is a "guide to the next bull market" In it, we share the framework that I use to navigate crypto cycles. It covers: 1. The data we track for "awareness" of which phase we are always in + where we believe we're at today. 2. The market signals we look for to confirm each phase. 3. How leverage, credit, and investor sentiment/psychology reflexively feed each phase of the cycle. 4. The sectors, themes, and assets we like + how we think about managing risk at various points in the cycle. 5. Learning from past cycles. 6. Why the coming cycle may be larger than the last. ---- Next week's Pro report will follow the same themes, and we'll be back with a full market structure and current conditions update on September 23. If you'd like to have the report hit your inbox when it's published next week, you can sign up below and get one month free 👇

When in doubt, zoom out. Here's some perspective in terms of examples of "early speculation" back in 2023, at a very similar stage of the cycle (well before BTC hit new highs): - Feb ‘23: NFT speculation as Blur takes market share from OpenSea - March ‘23: Arbitrum launches its token ($2.3b market cap) - March ‘23: Bitcoin Ordinals speculation (record tx fees on Bitcoin) - April ‘23: Pepe coin launches and hits $1.6b market cap within a few months - July ‘23: World Coin launches its token (5x in five months, hitting $1.4b market cap) - August ‘23: Friend Tech launches and pays out $12m in creator fees in the first week - Q4 23: Jito airdrop and TIA airdrops (TIA rose 10x in three months to a $3.2b market cap) ---- What we're seeing now on Robinhood Chain and in the social trading sector is par for the course for this stage of the cycle. We covered this topic in detail, while breaking down our views on PONS/PUMP in this week's Pro report. If you'd like to unlock the report, gain access to our portfolio, and receive alerts when we make changes, you can sign up below and get one month free 👇

The most interesting thing about what's happening in the Social Trading/Fast DeFi sector is that Pump Fun saw growth in revenue, trading volume, active users, and graduated tokens as PONS captured the narrative/mindshare on Robinhood Chain. This is very different from what we saw last summer, when Let's Bonk briefly captured Pump Fun users and market share (before Pump reclaimed it). The takeaway? The market is broadening, and PONS is serving a different user (ETH-based?) rather than pulling users from Pump Fun/Solana. Furthermore, the growth in activity on Pump Fun appears to be coming from existing users who "came back" to Pump after SOL rallied off the lows in June/July. So, we haven't really seen *new users* onboard just yet. That's pretty interesting, given the early signals we're getting before BTC even confirms the "early bull" stage of the cycle. --- We shared a "Cycle Awareness" report today with Pro members, in which we also went deep on PONS/PUMP and how we're thinking about where things are heading/portfolio management. If you'd like to access the report, you can unlock it below and get one month free 👇