Dave Nadig

So @JSeyff et al were positing "where's retail" around the BTC rally. Looking at flows vs. price, seems to me that the ETF is the canary in the retail BTC mine. Hardly rocket science... flow drives price. The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis gets more proof daily. https://t.co/r6ZJovZU6j

While article ignores that the Nasdaq rewrote the Rules JUST for this event: worth noting that the $SPCX lockup coincides with a massive QQQ's (and related) buy order as their weighting increases. Good luck figuring out whether Supply>Demand in a few weeks! https://t.co/1CTYVrUQhn

Remind me the last time a U.S. bank or Custodian had a dollar of losses? Oh right. $2 million in 2015 when National Bank of Blacksburg got hacked. No customer losses. And I can't remember one prior in my career. https://t.co/Uaucwonar7

Been getting inbounds about the new "leveraged ETFs that rebalance 6 times a day" filings from Defiance trying to figure out the use case, so I modelled out a few years of intraday SPY (plus a pile of hot single stock) moves. I was surprised at the results: on big-trendy days, either up or down, the rebal works for you, sometimes a lot. On choppy days, it underperforms modestly. Still seems like a weird product, even understanding the pattern vs daily rest.

Everyone who's all upset that we haven't gotten Crypto regulation done needs to understand: You can't ask for sensible regulation from people hell-bent on defunding and destaffing regulators. I am VERY pro crypto-regulation, VERY pro-tokenization. That the cyrpto industry hasn't been LOSING THEIR MINDS over the destaffing of leadership at CFTC/SEC/IRS is a blindspot. I am PRO Clarity-act (with some concerns), very PRO tokenization. I think we shouldn't pass a single law until we have a functional and funded regulator to implement it. I get that's a luddite position: Laws first. Enforcement later when something breaks. That's the new market.

@bespokeinvest So only 5% behind SPY and 10% behind the NDX. I guess it's better than the alternative? https://t.co/US5vXjBpqR

"Investors have become milk-fed Veal" is gonna leave a mark. https://t.co/SBzO2egjqp

@profplum99 @alphaarchitect @SamuelRPierson @MebFaber @iShares You’re still wrong. Blackrock and vanguard aren’t making “profits” off sec lending that offset distribution costs.

@profplum99 @alphaarchitect @MebFaber @iShares I think the sec-lending thing is a complete canard. There's enough horrific malfeasance going on without jumping on sec lending: VG gives 100% net to NAV. Blackrock gives 66% of TOPLINE rev, and eats the costs (roughly equivalent last time i ran the analysis a decade ago).

@EricBalchunas Gonna be such a weird patchwork of this stuff. Blackrock for employees, Dalio just for Connecticut. It will be interesting to see what sticks. Will Costco start offering contributions as part of membership rewards? What about Episcopalians? Or bowling leagues. Wild times.