Jesse Myers

It's time to think about the 2028 halving and what it could mean for BTC price. As of now, only 1.6 years until the next halving. After prior halvings: - 2012: ~100x rally over 12 months - 2016: ~30x rally over 18 months - 2020: ~8x rally over 18 months The halving has been the quadrennial heartbeat of Bitcoin's marketing and monetization. But in 2024, something different happened. The pattern of halving --> bull market was already established enough that people front-ran the halving. For the first time, we had a new all-time-high before the halving. - 2024: ~4x in 18 months BEFORE halving, ~2x rally over 18 months after halving So what will happen this cycle? Nobody really knows, but I think the precedent has been established to front-run the halving. That's the game theory now. If the same pattern plays out this cycle, the next 1.6 years could be the most explosive time for BTC. Repeating the prior cycle would look like: - 4x over 1.6 years: $58k (recent bottom) --> $232k at April 2028 halving - 2x over 18 months after halving: $232k --> $464k in 2H 2029 BTC could certainly deliver diminishing returns vs the prior cycle (as it has tended to do), but at some point that trend breaks to the upside. The key point for now is that people are likely to front-run the halving. And that could make the next 1.6 years the most exciting part of this Bitcoin cycle.

Early this year, Bitcoin was down while Silver and Gold boomed. Everyone said Bitcoin had failed as a store-of-value asset. Ever since, BTC has quietly closed the gap. At their extremes in Q1 2026: - Gold: +25% - Silver: +63% - Bitcoin: -29% 2026 performance YTD now: - Gold: +3% - Silver: -8% - Bitcoin: -10% I'm betting BTC ends up the best performer for 2026. 4 months to go!

Bitcoin may have just begun a 2-3 year bull market. Here's why, and what that could mean for BTC price. 1. BTC has decisively popped above Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line) Three weeks ago (at $64k), I said we were at the bottom. I noted that a decisive jump above the STH cost basis loomed in the coming months, and it happened a bit faster than expected! It seems that many don't see the latest rally as persuasive evidence of a major trend change. For me, this chart from @_Checkmatey_ tells the story... 2. The 2026 bear market has followed a remarkably similar pattern to 2022 In 2022, the ratio of BTC Price to STH cost basis (aka STH MVRV, the orange and blue metric on bottom half of this chart) bottomed in June, then drifted back to neutral for 7 months as the bear trend lost momentum. 7 months later, in January 2023, BTC price jumped decisively above STH cost basis. Then, STH MVRV spent 80%+ of the next 2.5 years in positive territory. All that orange on this chart? That's a bull market. Here in 2026, the STH MVRV ratio bottomed in Feb, then drifted back to neutral for 7 months as the bear trend lost momentum. ~7 months later, in late August, BTC price jumped decisively above STH cost basis. That's where we are now. 3. Welcome to the new bull market If the 2022 bear and 2023-25 bull cycle continue to repeat, we have just begun a new 2.5 year bull market. As I pointed out in my prior post, the start of a new BTC bull market is not a result of good news arriving. Rather, it's primarily a function of the bearish trend running out of steam (and sellers). Right now, what's left are three types of portfolios: those who don't know enough about BTC to want it (yet), those who are happy with their BTC holdings, and those who were waiting to buy BTC lower. Guess which group is watching in pain? In the early bull market, this is the dry powder that will bid BTC upwards as bears capitulate and get back in, one-by-one. This is just the first stage of a bull market. The pendulum of market psychology for BTC has just begun to swing towards the bullish zenith. It will take years to go from disbelief (now), to optimism, to mania. A big part of this process will be the next halving, currently on track for mid-April 2028. New BTC supply issuance will be permanently halved. This causes a supply shock, but more importantly, a marketing narrative for BTC. People will front-run, others will chase. All of that is still ahead. 4. My base case expectations With hindsight, I think this will be viewed as the start of the 2026-29 bull market. I think we will spend 80%+ of the next 2.5 years with BTC price above the STH cost-basis (pink line). How high this bull market goes is harder to say. The last bull market delivered an 8x from the bear-market low. An 8x from this bear-market low ($58k) would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC. If you thought Bitcoin was dead, or you were hoping to buy BTC lower... now might be the time to re-evaluate.

This is my 3rd Bitcoin bear market. Here's what seems clear to me, that newer Bitcoiners may not feel.... 1. This is what a BTC bear market bottom feels like Normie friends have been asking me "is BTC going to be 60s forever?" and "what positive catalysts are on the horizon?" One of the big lessons I've learned in BTC cycles is that the tops feel bullish... and the bottoms feel bearish. The end of a bear market is primarily a function of running out of sellers. The bearish sentiment builds on itself and shakes out low conviction holders... until you exhaust potential sellers. Or perhaps a more precise mental image... the bottom is in WHEN the pile of capital hoping for a lower entry price to buy BTC has become disproportionately large relative to remaining potential sellers. A BTC bear market doesn't end because good news arrives. It ends because bearish momentum can't be sustained and naturally ebbs. Then, suddenly, people sitting in cash are caught offsides and must bid BTC higher as they try to get back in. 2. The 2022 cycle bottom felt similar June 2022, it felt like shit watching BTC tumble below prior cycle high ($20k) for the first time ever. Price tumbled from $30k to $18k in a few days. People thought we were headed to $12k . In hindsight, that was peak bearish momentum. Over the next ~5 months, BTC drifted lower, with FTX fallout setting a cycle low in November at $15.5k . BTC felt gloomy and quiet for 2 months... and then popped back to $23k in January 2023 all of a sudden. In hindsight, that was the start of a 2.5 year bull market that took BTC to $126k, roughly ~8x from cycle low. 3. Metrics show 2026 repeating the psychology of 2022 This chart shows Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line) and how it tracks with BTC market price (white line). The bottom half shows this as a ratio between the two numbers (STH MVRV). Credit to @_Checkmatey_ for this excellent chart. In the 2022 bear market, you can see that the lowest STH MVRV ratio was June 2022. After this point, Short-Term Holder cost basis drifted lower along with BTC price for ~7 months, until January 2023 when BTC jumped convincingly above the pink line for the first time in 13 months... and a new bull market had begun. In 2026, the MVRV ratio spiked lowest in Feb. Since then, STH cost basis and BTC price have drifted lower for ~6 months now. 4. What this could mean for BTC's near future If the parallels between 2022 and 2026 continue, it would mean BTC price jumping convincingly above STH cost basis sometime in the next few months. (7 months post peak bearish momentum would mean September 2026; 13 months below STH cost basis trendline would mean November 2026.) And in hindsight, that breakout moment could be the start of a 2.5 year bull market. (8x from $58k low would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC.) If history repeats, this was the bottom. And in 4 years, you'll look back at $64k BTC the same way we now look back wistfully at $19k BTC.

The reason that Bitcoin treasury companies are interesting is that they have the potential to grow BTC ownership over time. This can be achieved two ways: 1. Accretive equity transactions that grow Bitcoin per share (e.g., issuing shares at premium to NAV, discounted share buybacks, etc.) 2. Amplification playing out favorably and delivering a growth in Net Bitcoin per share Not all BTCTCs will achieve positive results, and there is risk inherent in this playbook. But, Strategy grew Bitcoin per share by ~74% in 2024 and ~23% in 2025. If a BTCTC averages 20% growth in Bitcoin per share per year for 5 years, its shareholders will have grown their effective BTC exposure by ~2.5x. This is how we are thinking about the potential for Smarter Web @smarterwebuk and what we aim to deliver for shareholders. In my opinion, cold storage BTC should be a part of everyone's portfolio. But if there's a place for risk in a portfolio, then well-run BTCTCs trading at a discount to NAV are compelling.

Bitcoin treasury companies with amplification can outperform Bitcoin over time.  Here's a brief explainer of Amplified Bitcoin: - what it means - balance sheet mechanics - the one key metric to watch https://t.co/Y6QUqQxRS9

Ah, I failed to keep things clearly delineated. (This is one of the problems with explaining Strategy et al) One of the services is (as I described above), fairly high returns without holding BTC (e.g., STRC). This is aimed at fixed income investors. The other service is amplified Bitcoin (e.g., MSTR). This is the combination of mNAV over time, increasing Bitcoin per share through accretive equity transactions, and the mechanics of amplification playing out over time on the balance sheet (i.e., speculative attack in action). This second service does significantly underperform BTC in a bear market, especially if investors enter at a higher mNAV during a bull market. But, from a ~1x mNAV starting point and tail end of a bear market (e.g., now), MSTR as amplified Bitcoin has a bright outlook. Not without risk, of course!

@Nostrabitmus @parkeralewis word choice? only moderately fancy tenuous claim? 2022 MSTR mNAV bottomed at ~0.7x --> went to bull market high of ~4x in 2024. only data point we have in the short history of Bitcoin treasury companies

If the premium expands in a bull market and compresses in a bear market (as has been the case to-date for MSTR), it is linked to bear/bull market psychology MSTR mNAV was ~0.7x at 2022 bear market low, then ~4x in 2024 bull market enthusiasm peak, now ~1x Yes, the 2024 buyers would have been better off buying BTC

2026 update - Global Asset Landscape Global asset value +11% in the last year, now $1,127T. Expand THREAD to see which categories grew / shrank. https://t.co/I5rrsyqHPb