Byrne Hobart

@AgustinLebron3 Yes, with a qualifier that the extreme outliers in size either produce supply/demand aggregation tools priced with auctions (Google, Meta), sell software that's an outsourced part of the corporate central planning process (MSFT), or sell to such companies (Nvidia).

@_JeanLeon So you could have a situation where Nvidia drops to $50, but for the next few years GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are earning money from the purchases people made when Nvidia was at $200. So, in that case, the market drops but earnings keep rising for a while.

@RealJimChanos @MetacriticCap @borrowed_ideas So either they're cooking the books by saying they depreciate GPUs over 5.5 years, or the (undisclosed) mix of GPUs vs slower-depreciating assets skews more to the latter. If that's the case, it implies that they're getting better pricing from Nvidia than people thought!

@ArmandDoma Remember “Nvidia”? They tried to build a whole business around selling products that depreciate to zero within a few years.

@buccocapital You don't understand at all. With Nvidia 6% cheaper, I'll be using at least twice as many shares.

Take the Nvidia bear case where OpenAI does this entirely on their own silicon. You still have to assume that Jensen has already gotten phone calls from people collectively representing $100bn+ in annual capex.

Of all the weird things this market cycle, Nvidia trading at roughly the same price it was when the OpenAI announcement hit has to be the weirdest.