Fascinated by finance & markets and like writing about them, but teaching is my passion.
The S&P 500 was flat for the month and the 10-year treasury rose from 4.45% to 4.74%, as tech and AI came under selling pressure, and fears of war and a slowing economy resurfaced. The ERP for the index at the start of August 2026 stood at 4.23%, with expected return inching up to 8.97%. https://t.co/ovfiRos3AK
View original →The question is whether that breakeven revenue is possible (if not, it is a fairy tale), plausible (there is a path to getting there) and probable (likely to get there). In my judgment, Nvidia's breakeven revenues pass the possible & plausible tests, but fail the probable test. https://t.co/B9jazODnoW
View original →I use Nvidia, at the $5 trillion market cap, and assuming that the company can maintain its current nosebleed net margin and return on equity, to estimate breakeven revenues of about $500 billion (if delivered right now) or about $600 billion if you have to wait five years. https://t.co/B9jazODVeu
View original →Nvidia breached the $5 trillion market cap a few weeks ago, and even after giving back a chunk, it is one of a dozen companies with market caps exceeding a trillion. Overpriced stocks or Business marvels? https://t.co/rWVLPWuXJR https://t.co/qkKBqRNp4K
View original →Revaluing Nvidia, I leave market share and margin unchanged, but shrink the end market for AI chips. My value drops to $78, but with the price at $123, it is over valued by 59%, driving my decision to sell half of my remaining Nvidia shares, but it should not drive your decisions. https://t.co/x6vesEaIGF
View original →My Sept 2024 Nvidia valuation reflectsthe contours of the AI story, with a huge market for AI chips ($500 billion), a dominant market share for Nvidia (60%) and nosebleed operating margins (60%), yielding a value of $87, 22% below the price then ($109). https://t.co/rl5kjwJnQZ https://t.co/xOCWneo7kN
View original →Nvidia alone lost $580 billion in market cap on January 27th, and other companies in the AI architecture space suffered serious damage. Big tech (Meta & Microsoft) and Palantir have been relatively unscathed. https://t.co/GvQ1IGWuQ4
View original →Breaking down by industry, there were many old economy industries on the loser list, and semiconductors and auto stocks were taken to the top by big winners (Nvidia and Tesla) during the year. https://t.co/DJTehoOqJE https://t.co/5X1IsbkgMv
View original →I am a terrible trader, and I won't even try to discuss whether the momentum shift is temporary or permanent. As an investor, though, I used the earnings report to revisit my Nvidia valuation inputs. https://t.co/mojy7LJaLH https://t.co/W0HxY03SA9
View original →The numbers do represent a slowing in growth, a leveling off in margins and sobering guidance about the future. The report beat expectations but by less than in prior quarters.. In short, Nvidia set standards so high that it came up short. https://t.co/mojy7LJaLH https://t.co/t5mpVw07hu
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