Adam Livingston

If you believe Bitcoin appreciates over time, when should a treasury company deliberately increase BTC sensitivity using variable-cost perpetual capital? Bitcoin treasury companies should underwrite amplification like a spread trade... look at the cost of capital against the expected return on the Bitcoin it buys. So I built a hypothetical Bitcoin treasury and ran four full cycles since 2015. Each one raises 50% of NAV in a 10% perpetual preferred, with every dividend paid by selling BTC. Identical start dates. The only variable is how far above the 200-week moving average Bitcoin traded when the preferred capital went in. Issued at the 200WMA: common ended a median 39% richer than the unamplified twin four years later. Issued at +100%: 26% richer. Every cycle slopes down. The 2022 cycle, the one where treasury companies actually existed, is the one that bites. Amplify at the 200WMA and common gained 22%. Amplify at +100% and common lost 8% against simply holding. Same security, same coupon, same size, and the only thing that changed was the price paid. Across the grid, moving entry from the 200WMA to +80% cost about twice as much as moving the coupon from 8% to 16%. Bitcoin sits 29% above its 200WMA today. Amplification is a purchase. Check the price tag:

Yet another bullish Bitcoin signal. But first you must understand that Bitcoin volatility isn't risk, kids. It's a state variable. I pulled every daily Bitcoin observation since late 2015 and split 90-day realized volatility by whether BTC sat above or below its 200-day moving average. When volatility was low, Bitcoin did well in both trend regimes. Median 1-year return: +133% above the 200DMA, +121% below it. When volatility was high, trend decided everything. Above the 200DMA: +78%. Below the 200DMA: −36%. Same energy. Opposite outcomes. High volatility above trend has looked like expansion. High volatility below trend has looked like a crime scene. Bitcoin today: Price: $84,378 200DMA: $70,759 (+19.2%) 90-day realized vol: 39.2%, the 13th percentile of its history. Price tells you direction. Volatility tells you energy. Right now Bitcoin is quiet, above trend, and sitting in the best-performing cell on the board:

Awesome convo with @PunterJeff and @IIICapital regarding Bitcoin as digital capital. Check it out: https://t.co/1gVslGDMxJ

Excited for the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference next Monday! Come hang out and talk about Bitcoin with me: https://t.co/6Er4gjYguq

WOW: 5.06% on the U.S. 10-year. So to review: 1. The dollar is being diluted 2. The government is drowning in debt 3. And the market is now demanding 5%+ just to lend Uncle Sam money for 10 years But yes, please tell me more about how Bitcoin is the dangerous one. https://t.co/PEVycRvwu8

Gold will continue losing to Bitcoin. Gold priced in Bitcoin, 4-year moving average, every Sept 23: 2020: 0.407 BTC/oz 2021: −59.7% 2022: −16.8% 2023: −28.2% 2024: −37.9% 2025: −13.4% 2026: +1.4% −87% in 6 years. 2026 is the first year gold held its ground, but the trend hasn't turned, and Bitcoin is just getting started:

Good morning, everyone! I am quite excited for another full day of striving for Bitcoin.

The funniest part about Bitcoin is that someday a guy will explain to his grandchildren that he sold 2 BTC to buy a used F-150. And the children will just stare at him in the same horrified silence we reserve for stories about medieval dentistry.

This article explains how I got Saylor-pilled. I think you'll enjoy it. https://t.co/0korM1g6Vv

BTC/Gold's 50D SMA crossed back above its 200D on Aug 30 (15.70 vs 15.65 oz). After the 7 prior upside crosses since 2019, BTC's median 1Y return was +37.5%, but 3 of the 7 were losses. The 5 with two full years of data: Median 2Y return +221.7%. That median return would imply about $250,000 per Bitcoin by late August 2028 as Bitcoin reclaims the BTC/Gold ratio. 73% CAGR.